Great Blue North Draft Report

First-day trade winners and losers ... Have always wondered whether draft trades actually matched up with the standard NFL draft table chart that most teams use to guide them when they make draft-day deals. And while it's a small sample, the evidence from the 5 trades in the opening round of the opening round of the 2013 draft is kind of hit-and-miss. At least based on the values in the trade value chart, it certainly appears that Oakland, which sent the third pick to Miami for the 12th selection in the opening round and the 42nd pick in the second round, just wanted out of the top 10 when they made that deal. Indeed, there are reports that Oakland was going to take former Houston CB D.J. Hayden with the third pick if they weren't able to move down even though its unlikely any other teams had him rated anywhere near that high. And in dropping down to the 12th pick, the Raiders probably should have gotten the Dolphins other second rounder, the 54th overall, to meet the criteria of the trade value chart. The 3rd pick is rated at 2200 points, while the 12th and 42nd are worth only 1690 points; that's a difference of 510 points or an early second rounder. However, in getting a second round pick, but still getting the guy they were going to take all aong, Oakland appeared satisfied to deal the 3rd pick at a firesale price.

At the same time, Dallas did not appear to get full value for trading the 18th pick to San Francisco for the 31st and 74th picks. In fact, according to the value chart, the Cowboys should have gotten another 4th rounder to balance things out. According to the chart, the 18th pick was worth 900 points, whereas the value of the two picks Dallas got in return were only worth 820 points, a difference of 80 points taht would translate to an early 4th round pick. And the 49ers, who came into the draft with 13 picks, certainly appeared to have more to ante up with. The fact that the Cowboys then selected former Wisconsin C Travis Frederick, who few considered to be more than a late second round prospect likely has Dallas fans a little grumbly today.

On the other hand, the other three trades in last night's opening round came closer to balancing out based on the trade value chart. St. Louis did give up slightly more than it got (1635 points to 1653) in order to move up from the 16th pick to the 8th which had been held by Buffalo. That difference translates into a late 6th round pick which the Rams were more than happy to concede in order to come away with the player described as many as the most dynamic offensive playmaker in the draft. Ironically, the Rams were able to recoup almost all that difference when they sent the 22th pick to Atlanta for the 30th pick as well as late 3rd and 6th round picks which worksed out to 780 points versus 764. Meanwhile, on fact value it looked like New England had maybe fleeced Minnesota in the deal in which the Vikings acquired the 29th pick at the end of the first round in order to select WR Cordarelle Patterson for second (#52), 3rd (#3), 4th (#102) and 7th (229) round picks. In fact, when the numbers are crunched, the Patriots did come out ahead (658 points to 640), but again the difference only translates into a late 6th round pick.

With Kansas City expected to make an OT - either Luke Joeckel of Texas A&M or Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher - with the first pick at this year’s draft, the real intrigue during tomorrow’s opening round will start when Jacksonville gets on the clock with the second pick. And unlike Kansas City, which as recently as the end of last week, claimed to still be looking at 4 players as possible options for the #1 pick overall at the 2013 draft, new Jaguars’ G.M. David Caldwell said at the team’s pre-draft presser on Monday that they know which player they’ll be taking with the second pick. In fact, we wondered initially if Caldwell had inadvertently let the cat out of the bag that the Jaguars would be selecting West Virginia QB Geno Smith with the top pick. On the one hand, it would be almost impossible for the Jaguars to say they already knew which particular player they were taking if it was the OT that the Chiefs passed on because the Jaguars won’t know for sure whether it will be Joeckel or Fisher until after Kansas City actually makes its selection. Caldwell then talked about possibly trading down from their second round pick, the 33rd overall, which will be the first pick on Friday night. Common sense would seem to dictate that if the Jaguars didn’t get a QB in the first round, they would almost have to get one in the second - in fact one would figure they would almost have to think about trading back up into the latter part of the opening round to grab someone like E.J. Manuel from just down the road at Florida State - but here they are putting the for sale on their second rounder. However, the day after Caldwell’s presser, Jags’ owner Shad Khan said he had been briefed on the player the team planned to take with the second pick and indicated he is on board with the selection even if it is at a non-glamour position like offensive tackle. In the process, Khan appeared to be preparing the Jags’ fan base, or whatever’s left of it, for a pretty boring pick, although its also possible the Jaguars are just trying to stoke some trade interest in the #2 pick. Ironically, no other team is likely to make a play to get a QB like Smith, but teams like Philadelphia and Detroit, which have the 4th and 5th picks, respectively, and reportedly are interested in Fisher, just might be inclined to move up to get him. On the other hand, the thought that came to mind with the notion that the Jaguars are indeed planning to take Fisher that its all part of devilishy clever plan by the Jags to put themselves in position to get South Carolina DE Javedon Clowney with the top pick at the 2014 draft. Bottom line, Jacksonville is a bad football team which needs impact players - either a real QB or a disruptive defender - and no RT even a future Pro Bowler - is going to make them a better team. But hey the Jags do have new uniforms!

Interesting that Oakland G.M. Reggie McKenzie, whose Raiders have the third pick overall, one behind Jacksonville, said he wants to find ‘difference-makers in this year’s draft who can impact games.’ McKenzie also said that he has a pretty good idea who the Raiders would take with the third pick if that’s where they ended up, but that the team has received a number of calls from teams exploring the possibility of trading up to the that spot. And the Raiders are likely to deal if they get the right offer as they have multiple needs and are without second- and fifth-round picks this year because of earlier trades.

In fact, according to published reports, just about every team with a top 10 pick wants to trade down. Which makes sense as this year’s draft is being described as the ’weakest’ - at least at the top of the board - in over a decade. Teams that are thought to have at least explored the possibility of moving down include Philadelphia, Detroit, Cleveland, Arizona and Buffalo, which hold the 4th thru the 8th picks. It should be noted, though, that some of those trade down interests come only if a player the team wants is not available. Detroit, for example, is believed to be very interested in OT Eric Fisher and would only consider moving down if he is no longer on the board, although there is a much better than even chance that the former CMU star will be taken within the first four picks. Same story for Cleveland, which is thought to like Alabama CB Dee Milliner enough to stick around with the 6th pick, but otherwise would jump at a chance to move down, while Arizona would stay at #7 if one of the top OTs - Joeckel, Fisher or Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson were still on the board at that time. At the same time, there are several teams that could consider moving up including the Jets, with the 9th and 13th picks, and San Diego, which desperately wants one of those OTs, but aren‘t going to get one at #11.Then there is the curious situation of Miami, which is believed to be considering both a possible move up to try and get one of those OTs - and with an extra pick in both the second and third rounds have the ammunition to do so - but failing that would prefer to move down from the 12th selection. All very confusing.

It could be even more confusing in Miami where team sources told Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald that the Dolphins, who reportedly have had on-again, off-again talks with Kansas City about veteran OT Branden Albert, were talking with Albert's camp earlier today and would like to have him in for a physical. There have been conflicting reports over the past couple of days that talks between the Chiefs weren’t progressing because either the Chiefs were asking too much in compensation or that the Dolphins were balking at Albert’s contract demands. It is also possible that the Dolphins want t keep Albert’s name in the papers to show that they don’t need to be held hostage if they did try and trade up in tomorrow night’s opening round.

The AFC East is also the site of today’s hottest buzz as there are reports that both Buffalo and the New York Jets are very interested in former Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib. It has long been thought that the Bills were interested in Nassib who played for Buffalo head coach Doug Marrone last fall; it has also been thought that the Bills might consider trading down from the 8th pick before taking Nassib as he is barely thought to be a first-round talet, much less a top 10 prospect. But here come the Jets, who needless to say want to upgrade from Mark Sanchez, who the Bills now fear might take Nassib themselves with either the 9th or 13th picks.

Draft clock ticking … Depending on how one counts there are either 6, or a half dozen days until the 2013 draft gets underway next Thursday. Still, though, there really isn’t much buzz out there. Cleveland has indicated that they may be willing to move down from the 6th pick in this year’s opening round depending on who’s still on the board when the Browns get on the clock. The Browns are believed to be really interested in Alabama CB Dee Milliner and likely wouldn’t go anywhere if he were still on the board; the Browns could also be hard-pressed to drop down if Oregon OLB Dion Jordan was still at #6. Whatever, the Browns expect some calls next Thursday from teams interested in moving up in search of Oklahoma OT Lane Johnson, if he was still on the board at that point, although no one should rule out the possibility of all three top OTs - Johnson, Texas A&M’s Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher of Central Michigan - all go within the first 4-5 picks. At the same time, though, no one should rule out some team intrigued by the play-making ability of West Virginia WR Tavon Austin giving the Browns a call regarding the 6th pick …

On the other hand, Minnesota, which has the 23rd and 25th picks in this year’s opening round, is reportedly open to moving up closer to the middle of the opening round, although the Vikings apparently aren’t willing to part with both their #1 picks in order to move up; in fact, despite last year’s dramatic rise in the standings, the Vikings still are a team in transition with a number of major holes so in the end may be tempted to stick with their current hand and address those issues …

With this year’s top 3 OTs all now considered locks to go in the top ten, the buzz around the league is that Alabama OT D.J. Fluker may not last past the middle of this year’s opening round. While he’s more a RT type, Fluker is a big guy with a huge wingspan who could fill a variety of roles at the next level. At the same time, Florida State OT Menelik Watson, the former British basketball player, looks like he could find a home somewhere in the final 10-12 picks of the opening; indeed, there are teams that like Watson even more than Fluker because he has much better feet and could develop into a fine LT at the next level …

Speaking of moving up, no one should be surprised if either or both of CBs Jamar Taylor of Boise State and Houston’s D.J. Hayden don’t make it out of next week’s opening round. Indeed, no one should be surprised if either or both are selected ahead of fellow corners Xavier Rhodes of Florida State and/or Desmond Trufant of Washington, who have generally been considered the 2/3 corners in this year’s draft after Alabama‘s Milliner. Rhodes, who is long and physical, but not all that quick or agile, for example, may be limited to team’s that play almost exclusively press coverage, while Trufant just doesn’t look as good or consistent on game tape as he did at the Senior Bowl … There’s also a growing buzz that Kansas State LB Arthur Brown could also get a first-round call, while guys who may be moving up in the second day area include Texas A&M RB Christine Michael, MLBs Jon Bostic of Florida and Oregon’s Kiko Alonso, Auburn DE/OLB Corey Lemonier, and Syracuse G/T Justin Pugh …

Meanwhile, it wouldn’t be draft season without a low Wonderlic score or two being leaked. This year its WRs Tavon Austin and Cordarelle Patterson, arguably the two top guys at the position this year, who reportedly scored 7 and 11 respectively on the somewhat controversial intelligence test. As teams will tell you, though, its rare that anyone’s draft grade gets bumped because of the Wonderlic test which is designed to measure an individual’s ability to think and learn, as well as solve problems and follow instructions. However, a low Wonderlic score can be a red flag as rookies coming into the NFL are asked to absorb and process so much information when they arrive in the league such that teams will at least want to have those players in to test their football intelligence. And it may be that we won’t have the Wonderlic to kick around that much as the NFL reportedly is trying to develop an intelligence test that better measures football smarts.
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Just one week to go until the start of the 2013 draft, but how the opening round will evolve still looks to be about as clear as mud. Indeed, words like ’unique‘, ’fluid’ and ’unpredictable’ are the phrases being heard most often as teams around the league talk about what they are expecting during next week’s opening round. The simple fact appears to be that even the teams themselves have no real clue as to how the first 5-10 picks are going come off the board next Thursday evening. On the one hand, there is no consensus top player or players in this draft. There does appear to be a small blue-chip group which likely includes OTs Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher, DT Sharrif Floyd, DE/LB Dion Jordan, CB Dee Milliner - and for the sake of argument West Virginia QB Geno Smith - although there is no real consensus as to how those guys line up within the top tier. Meanwhile, the second tier of players appears to be even more fluid with as many as 20 players who could conceivably be selected between the 6th and 15th picks.

The other thing that makes this draft even more potentially volatile is that so many teams have multiple needs and/or wants that they could conceivably address with their top pick. Jacksonville, which has the second pick overall, for example, has played its card about as close to the vest as possible as still could take QB Smith if the team’s new management team feels its already time to cut bait on Blaine Gabbert. Or the Jaguars also could quite conceivably take the OT Kansas City passes or the Jaguars could go in a completely different direction and select any of this year’s top defensive prospects including Oregon DE Dion Jordan, Florida DT Sharif Floyd or Alabama CB Dee Milliner. The Jaguars are that thin across the board!

There is a similar story for both Oakland and Philadelphia which pick 3rd and 4th respectively. Neither team has given much indication where its leaning with their opening round pick and like Jacksonville, could take QB Smith, one of the OTs, or anyone of the top three defensive candidates. As such, both Oakland and Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Detroit appears to want to grab either OT Fisher or CB Dee Milliner if either or both when the Lions get on the clock with the 5th pick; however, if both were gone - and its hardly out of the question - Detroit would be another team that could then go in anyone of up to half a dozen directions. Of course, all that doesn’t include the likelihood of several trades involving top 5-10 trades which is a very real possibility. Remember that last year 6 of the first 7 picks at the 2012 draft changed hands before the picking was done.

And the multiple options for teams isn’t restricted to teams with very early picks. There is a similar story for teams like Pittsburgh, the Giants and Chicago picking, with the 17th, 19th and 20th picks respectively. Even defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore could go in any of the 3-4 directions with the final pick in this year‘s draft. All of this, of course, makes life miserable for us mock drafters, who don’t get much right even when things go by the numbers!

Meanwhile, Kansas City still appears to be leaning toward taking an OT with this year‘s first pick overall, but really haven‘t left many hints whether it will ultimately be Texas A&M’s Luke Joeckel or Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher. It is also interesting that with just 7 days to go until the draft, there has been almost no buzz at all out of Kansas City about any negotiations between the Chiefs and any of the leading candidates to be the first player chosen. Kansas City, of course, is free to negotiate with any player or players in this year’s draft and could actually have their choice signed and delivered by the time they get on the clock next Thursday. And while it has been a few years since a team with the top pick has had its choice signed before the draft, every team picking #1 in recent years has at least talked the parameters of a contract with the various likely candidates they are looking at . And such negotiations have almost become public to some degree in recent years with either the team themselves or the respective agents leaking information to the press to suit their particular agenda. Of course, its very possible that the deafening silence from Kansas City simply reflects the fact that the Chiefs are indeed talking with the representatives of Joeckel, Fisher et al, but that nothing has leaked out. Or it may reflect the possibility that the Chiefs are still holding out the hope of trading out of the #1 pick and are biding their time regarding contract talks, although one would think that the fact that the team with the #1 pick is talking with one or more players would force another team thinking of moving up to actually get a move on!

Its also interesting to note that QB Blaine Gabbert shared first-tem snaps with journeyman Chad Henne when Jacksonville opened voluntary organized team activities this week. Hardly a ringing endorsement from the Jaguars’ new management team. No question that the first key question at next week’s draft, assuming that Kansas City sticks to the script and selects one of the OTs, is whether the Jaguars take QB Geno Smith or go in another direction. Obviously, if the Jaguars take Smith, the other top 5 prospects on the board get pushed down another pick. On the other hand, if they don’t do teams like Buffalo and maybe the Jets who pick later in the top ten start thinking about moving up. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia has reportedly spent a lot of time with Oklahoma OT Lane Johnson this week. The team worked him out at a private workout at his hometown high school in Texas last weekend, while he was in Philadelphia earlier this week for an on-site visit with Eagles’ execs that included new head coach Chip Kelly, G.M. Howie Roseman and owner Jeffrey Lurie. More likely the Eagles are just covering their bases in case both Joeckel and Fisher come off the board in the first three picks, but there is a growing buzz around the league that no one should be surprised if three of the first four picks next Thursday are OTs.

Needless to say there would be a few broken hearts in places like Arizona, San Diego and Miami if the three OTs come off the board that quickly. Indeed, each of those teams has a big hole at LT and has to be hoping that one of the three top OTs slips to their spot in the draft because there is a big drop-off to the next level at the position. Given that that likely isn’t going to happen - Arizona picks 7th, while San Diego and Miami select 11th and 12th respectively - those teams may have to move up if they want to have any shot at getting one of Joeckel, Fisher or Johnson. Indeed, Miami had indicated earlier this month that they’d be willing to move up. And more recently, San Diego has also hinted that they would be willing to move for the right player at the right price. As we noted in an earlier buzz column that teams that don't get one of the top three OTs may look to trade with Kansas City for incumbent starting LT Branden Albert who would have to move to RT or slide inside to OG, which he adamanty does not want to do, if the Chiefs ultimately draft Joeckel or Fisher. And there are late reports that the Dolphins who have extra picks in the second and third round, have had at lesat preliminary talks with KC about a deal, especially if they lose out on Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson.

Meanwhile, there are rumblings out of Atlanta that the Falcons may be prepared to move up in order to secure one of this year’s top CBs. The Falcons haven’t ruled out making a really bold move and moving up into range to grab Alabama’s Dee Milliner - remember the Falcons made a similar move two years ago when they moved up from late in the opening round to select WR Julio Jones. And that worked out pretty well in Atlanta. More likely though the Falcons may end up targeting Xavier Rhodes of Florida State and/or Washington’s Desmond Trufant somewhere around the 20th pick.

The New York Jets have reportedly put trade talks with Tampa Bay regarding a possible deal for Jets’ All-Pro CB Darelle Revis ‘on hold.’ Ostensibly, the Jets have put the talks on hold while they wait for updates on Revis’ medical condition. Revis, who is in New York for the beginning of the Jets’ ’voluntary’ off-season workouts that got underway on Monday, underwent an MRI that according to sources showed his recovery from a torn ACL to be on schedule if not somewhat ahead of what was expected. The fact that the Jets have put a hold on trade talks, though, is far more likely a pressure tactic in the stalled talks between the two teams. The Buccaneers are reportedly offering 1st and 3rd round picks, as well as a 5th or 6th rounder for Revis, although it is very possible that the first rounder is their #1 pick in 2014. Meanwhile, the Jets are holding out for more in a stare-down that could go on right up until the Buccaneers get on the clock with their opening round pick next week. The strangest part of the whole story, though, emerged on the weekend when there were reports that the Jets were trying to get the Buccaneers to take QB Mark Sanchez and his guaranteed $8M-plus contract for 2013 off their hands. The Jets never really denied the reports, but it doesn’t appear as if Sanchez is still part of the discussion. What is pretty clear is that Jets‘ management have no faith in Sanchez‘ ability to turn the franchise‘s fortunes around so it won‘t be a shock if the Jets make a move to try and acquire one of this year’s top prospects at the position such as West Virginia’s QB Geno Smith, especially if they are able to arm themselves with a second opening round selection at next week’s draft.

Meanwhile, Kansas City has reportedly lowered its demand for veteran LT Brandon Albert to a high second-round pick at this year’s draft. The Chiefs had been asking for a first rounder for Albert, who is would become expendable in KC if as expected the team selects either of OTs Luke Joeckel of Texas A&M or Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher with the first pick at next week’s draft, but got no nibbles at all. Despite lowering the price tag, the Chiefs reportedly still haven’t generated much interest in Albert, who as the team’s franchise player carries a $9M-plus contract for the upcoming season, although any team that were to acquire him would be in a position to negotiate a new long-term contract. In the end, the Chiefs may have to wait until after the first round gets sorted out as teams needing a LT like Detroit, Arizona and San Diego wait to see if they can draft one of this year’s very promising LT prospects.

This and that … This is the final week for teams to have out-of-town players in for pre-draft visits and if frequent flyer miles are any indication, West Virginia WR Tavon Austin may be the hottest guy in the 2013 draft class. By the time it’s all done, Austin will have had private workouts and/or on-site visits with 12 teams. And Austin, who most analysts still project to be a mid-first round prospect, will be in Detroit later today for a two visit with the Lions who will have the 5th pick overall next week. Austin also had a private workout with St. Louis over the past weekend. In fact, the Rams, who have the 16th and 22nd picks in this year’s draft, are thought to be the team most likely to want Austin, however, at this point it looks like they may have to move up into the top 10 to get him. Indeed, in addition to Detroit at #5, Austin has also had recent visits with Cleveland and the NY Jets, which have the 6th and 9th picks respectively, while both Miami and Tampa Bay (with picks #12 and #13) are also believed to be intrigued by Austin’s uncommon playmaking ability. And speaking of on-site visits, while most players making the rounds are early to mid-rounders, teams are also bringing in the odd true sleeper. And a couple of unheralded guys who have made visits include California Lutheran WR Eric Rogers and Old Dominion OLB Craig Wilkins. Rogers is a 6-3, 205-pound DIII All-American with 4.50 speed - he was also a D3 track All-American as a triple4 jumper - had 91 receptions for almost 1,300 yards and 18 touchdowns this past season. For his part, Wilkins is a disruptive 6-1, 238-pound OLB with sub-4.65 speed who had 6.5 sacks and 7 other tackles for loss last fall among his 90 total tackles in 2012 ... More positive news on the health status of Utah DT Star Lotulelei after Philadelphia G.M.Howie Roseman confirmed in a pre-draft presser the former Utes’ star is okay medically after that heart scare at the combine.

A pretty good source is confirming pretty much what Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald reported earlier today and that is that the Dolphins have OOs Luke Joeckel of Texas A&M and Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher rated considerably higher than Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson. As such, the Dolphins don’t appear to be all that interested in trading up for Johnson as has been speculated around the league in recent days, but are very keen to move up for either Joeckel or Fisher. In fact, according to sources the Dolphins won’t rule out trading all the way up to the #1 pick to get one of those guys if that’s what it takes. In fact, Miami G.M. Jeff Ireland confirmed at a pre-draft presser yesterday that the Dolphins, who have extra selections in both the second and third rounds, are prepared to move up in this year’s open round and won’t rule out dealing for the top pick.

Of course, it could be awfully expensive for the Dolphins to move all the way from the 12th pick to the first pick. According to the generally accepted NFL trade value chart, for example, the Dolphins would probably have to surrender their first round pick in 2014 as well as one of their two second round picks this year, along with the 12th pick, in order to move up to the #1 selection, although it is possible that Kansas City could accept less just to move off the top pick. If in fact the Dolphins are serious about moving up, it might make more sense to talk with Oakland about the 3rd pick, assuming that Jacksonville chooses either West Virginia QB Geno Smith or Oregon DE Dion Jordan with the second selection and that one of Joeckel or Fisher is still on the board. That would still cost the Dolphins something in the neighborhood of a couple of second rounders, but the Raiders might be willing to accept one in 2014 if Miami included some later round considerations this year. Remember that Oakland doesn’t have a second rounder this year after including it as the final part of the deal to pry QB Carson Palmer away from Cincinnati a couple of years ago and would probably like to recoup that selection.

As noted, for Miami to have a shot at the OT that Kansas City passes on with the top pick (and assuming that the Chiefs don’t trade the pick somewhere else) Jacksonville would have to take a player at another position with the second pick. In fact, the Jaguars are really in a position to have a major impact on how the early selections at this month‘s draft play out, especially if they were to select QB Geno Smith with the second pick. However, the Jaguars have been remarkably quiet about their intentions since sending a full delegation to scout Smith at his pro day last month. And new G.M. David Caldwell didn‘t shed much light on exactly what the team’s hierarchy is thinking at his pre-draft presser other than to say the Jaguars have a couple of players that they really liked for the #2 pick. Caldwell didn‘t name names, but an educated guess might be that the two are Smith and Oregon DE Dion Jordan. Stay tuned …

And just a quick note on blowing smoke and the like. There have been several comments when a team works a notable player - for example when it was revealed that Cleveland would be working out Smith this weekend - that the team in question might be just putting up a smokescreen to entice another team that wants that particular player into trading up. Fact is that no team is going to trade up with a team they think wants the player; they are going to try and leapfrog that team and trade up with a team that picks ahead of the eam working out the player. Want to build some interest in the pick; let it ’leak’ that there are other teams trying to trade up for the pick.

April 11

There are conflicting reports where negotiations stand between Tampa Bay and the New York Jets in a proposed trade in which the Buccaneers would get All-Pro CB Darelle Revis for the Jets. There have been reports, for example, that Tampa Bay was only willing to part with future picks for Revis, who finished the year on IR with a torn ACL, while the Jets are holding out for the Buccaneers’ first-round pick this year, the 13th overall. However, there are other reports which indicate that the Buccaneers have already offered their #1 pick, along with a mid-rounder and a late rounder for Revis, but that the Jets, who really won’t feel any real pressure to consummate the deal until closer to the draft, are holding out for a little more. Whatever, it sounds like something will get down on, or before the 25th. The Jets want to move Revis and have no other takers, while the Buccaneers really want Revis; indeed, there are other reports that the Buccaneers have already agreed on the parameters of a new contract with Revis.

Of course, if the Jets, who already have the 9th pick overall, were able to acquire the 13th pick, they would be in a position to move further up into the top 10 were they so inclined. And if who they are bringing in for pre-draft visits is any indication, the Jets may be thinking just that. Indeed, the Jets have either visited with recently, or will have in for visits, West Virginia QB Geno Smith, along with Alabama CB Dee Milliner and Oregon DE/LB Dion Jordan, all three of whom are expected to be off the board before the 9th pick. Smith, in particular, would make an intriguing target as incumbent starting QB Mark Sanchez has pretty much worn out his welcome with the team’s management, not to mention their fan base, while both Milliner and Jordan would address huge needs for the Jets. If Smith was indeed the target, the Jets could probably package the 9th and 13th picks to get all the way up to the second pick if Jacksonville didn’t want him for themselves. Meanwhile, the Jets could probably get to the 4th or 5th pick by packaging their current second rounder (#39th overall) with the 9th pick.

The Jets could also conceivably trade all the way up to the #1 pick overall with Kansas City were they so inclined, although it would cost them at least the 9th, 13th pick and 39th picks, as well as a pick in 2014, although that would probably be a little steep. Certainly, the indications are that Kansas City is still holding out hope that someone makes them an offer for this year’s top pick. And the Chiefs are in the rather unique position of possibly being willing to drop out of the top 5 as they are already pretty well covered at the position they’ll likely address with the top pick if they stay at #1. The Chiefs are expected to take either LT Luke Joeckel of Texas A&M or Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher, but they already have a very serviceable LT in Brandon Albert whom Kansas City franchised earlier this year. If the Chiefs did move down they could get Albert signed long-term and address another position. On the other hand, if the Chiefs do stay at #1 and select either Joeckel or Fisher, it is very possible they could move Albert, who has no secret of the fact that he does not want to change positions, almost immediately afterward. Indeed, the Chiefs have to want to try and get back into the second-round after trading their #2 pick to San Francisco for QB Alex Smith.

This and that: Speaking of West Virginia’s Smith, he has a private workout scheduled with Cleveland in his home town of Miami on the weekend. Because teams don’t usually waste their time working out players they are not interested in ten days before the draft suggests the Browns have a real interest in Smith. However, Cleveland, which has the 6th pick overall and has stated publicly more than once that they’ll keep looking for an elite QB until they find one, may have to move up to get Smith as there is no guarantee that he’ll still be on the board when they get on the clock. The Browns, though, have also checked out all the other top QB prospects in this year’s draft, so have other options at the position … Nice to see former Notre Dame MLB Manti Te’o get some love from NFL teams as he’ll be visiting at least three teams over the next few days. Te’o, who had been considered to be a mid-first round prospect before running afoul of the fake dead girlfriend thing - although the fact that he looked lost at sea in the national championship game against Alabama and then tested poorly at the combine didn’t help - has visits scheduled with Detroit, Chicago, Miami and San Diego. However, none of those teams - or anyone else for that matter - is expected to take Te’o in the opening round, although he should start to get some serious looks around the middle of the second round …

April 9

Just a day after we noted in the Scout’s Notebook the somewhat curious situation of Alabama OG Chance Warmack who many consider to be one of the very best prospects in this year’s draft, but who to date hadn’t received an invitation to visit any teams with a top 10 pick in this month’s draft. And as if right on cue Detroit made us out to be liars of sorts when it leaked out that the Lions, who have the 5th pick this year, were hosting Warmack this week. Certainly, Warmack would qualify as a top 5 prospect, but there are doubts that the Lions would actually pull the trigger on the big ’Bama guard the early in the draft with some talented players at impact positions still on the board. In fact, the smart money around the league is that the Lions would only select Warmack if they moved down in the opening round. That may dovetail with one of the draft’s other hot stories this week in that Miami is seriously considering moving up in order to acquire one of this year’s big three OTs: Luke Joeckel of Texas &M, Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher or Lane Johnson of Oklahoma. Given that Joeckel and Fisher are expected to be gone within the first 3-4 picks later this month, Detroit would appear to be a logical trade-up possibility for the Dolphins, who have extra picks in both the second and third rounds to offer as compensation. Interesting that the Lions will also reportedly bring West Virginia WR Tavon Austin, who most teams consider to be the most dynamic playmaker in this year’s draft, in for a visit either later this week or next week. However, as has been noted, Austin isn’t all that big and likely would be considered something of a reach with the 5th pick so might be another player the Lions might be checking out if they were to move down. There would still likely be plenty of perms and combs, though, before any deal is consummated. For example, would the Lions be willing to move down if Alabama CB Dee Milliner was still there at #5. It is also possible that Miami could have some company in the pursuit of Johnson. In particular, both San Diego, which picks one spot ahead of the Dolphins at #11, and Arizona, which has the 7th selection, also desperately need a LT and could be tempted to move up. Neither has the trade ammunition that the Dolphins have, although the Cardinals would not have to move up as far. In fact, if multiple teams are interested in the 3rd OT, then picks as high as Jacksonville at #2, Oakland at #3 and Philadelphia at #4 could also come into play from a trade-talk perspective. Meanwhile, the other player that could attract some trade-up talk is Alabama CB Dee Milliner; its possible, for example, that a team like Cleveland might try and jump ahead of Philadelphia and Detroit to get the former Tide corner. Stay tuned … Meanwhile, speaking of former Alabama stars, several prominent draft analysts including Mel Kiper and Chris Mortensen are reporting that former Tide RT D.J. Fluker may be making a late move up draft boards across the NFL. Indeed, there are reports that the Dolphins are considering Fluker as a fall-back option with the 12th pick if they aren’t able to work a deal to move up and get one of the top three OT prospects.

Entering the off-season, the consensus around the NFL was that no team was more likely to use their top pick at this year’s draft than Arizona. Throughout the pre-draft process, though, the Cardinals have shown almost interest in any of this year’s top prospects at the position. The reason, according to new head coach Bruce Arians, is that the Cardinals don’t think there is a QB in this year’s draft class worth a top 10 pick and even before trading with Oakland for veteran QB Carson Palmer they had no intention of using their first-round pick on a QB. Ironically, though, is that both Arians and Arizona G.M. Steve Keim will travel to Los Angeles for a private workout with USC QB Matt Barkley, although at this point the Cardinals would only likely consider him with their second round pick. What makes it even a little more ironic is that the Cardinals reportedly were the only team in the NFL not to have a rep at USC’s original pro day … On the other hand, no one will accuse Buffalo of not doing their homework if the Bills don’t end up with a QB at the end of this year’s draft. Indeed, with word that the Bills will work out former Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib this weekend and will have NC State’s Mike Glennon in for a visit in the next few days, Buffalo will have formally checked each and every one of the top prospects at the position this year. For the record, the Bills have worked out and hosted both Geno Smith of West Virginia and Florida State’s E.J. Manuel, while they worked out Landry Jones of Oklahoma and Tennessee’s Tyler Bray last month and Southern Cal’s Matt Barkley this past week, while they have also hosted Matt Scott of Arizona. In fact, of the 14 players the Bills are known to have either worked out or hosted at their facilities, 8 were Qbs … Hard not to figure that St. Louis is targeting a WR with one of their early picks this year after the Rams hosted receivers Tavon Austin of West Virginia. Cal’s Keenan Allen, Tennessee’s Justin Hunter and Baylor’s Terrance Williams among their early visitors. The Rams, who have also had RBs Eddie Lacy of Alabama and South Carolina’s Lattimore in for visits, also appear to be looking for a replacement for RB Stephen Jackson, while they have also had two of the top WLBs in Khaseem Greene of Rutgers and Kansas State’s Arthur Brown in for visits. Interesting that while a lot of draft projections have the Rams taking either of OG Chance Warmack or UNC’s Jonathan Cooper with the 16th pick, St. Louis hasn’t had either in for a visit, but the team has hosted Kentucky’s Larry Warford, who is considered to be a second round prospect. Meanwhile, at least based on the names of players known to have visited Pittsburgh it would appear to be the Steelers would like to do some work on the defensive side of the ball later this month. Indeed, every player that Pittsburgh is known to have hosted to date plays defense with more than half of them LBs including Georgia edge rusher Jarvis Jones. It’s also interesting to note that of the 4 teams that Alabama OT D.J. Fluker, a top 20 bubble guy, is known to be visiting, three (Minnesota, New England and Baltimore) have picks late in the opening round, while only one - Carolina at #14 - is in the top 20. Again, its hard to know what to make of it, but both Carolina and New Orleans, which picks right after the Panthers at #15, both have arranged visits with BYU DE/OLB Ziggy Ansah, who has been considered a top 5-10 prospect. Of course, the Saints and Panthers could be just doing due diligence in checking out the guy just in case who could drop because his relative football inexperience, or it could represent the possibility that Ansah, the Ghanian immigrant who didn’t start playing football until three years ago, may actually be slipping a tad in part because he’s so raw and also because of concerns about his commitment to the game. On the other hand, Ansah will also visit Philadelphia which picks 4th, along with Cleveland and Arizona, who pick 6th and 7th respectively, so who knows! Stay tuned.

Draft trade winds starting to blow … With the 2013 draft now just over 3 weeks away, one can hear the faint hints of trade possibilities if one listens close enough. There are quiet rumblings, for example, that teams picking just ahead of Arizona, which has the 7th pick this year, are starting to get calls from teams needing a LT and looking to possibly get ahead of the Cardinals to take Oklahoma OT Lane Johnson, on the assumption that this year’s top two prospects at the position - Texas A&M’s Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher of Central Michigan - are already off the board by that point. Cleveland, which picks 6th, one spot before Arizona, appears to be a prime target of LT-needy teams which may likely includes San Diego and Miami, which have the 11th and 12th picks respectively. While they pick behind the Chargers, Miami, in particular, appears to be well-armed to make a move up after losing OT Jake Long in free agency as the Dolphins have extra picks in both the second and third rounds. Meanwhile, there is also some indication that more than one playoff team with a pick at the back end of the draft would like to move up closer to the middle of the opening round to take one of this year’s top WRs. Again, teams that would appear to be in the best position to make that kind of move are Minnesota and San Francisco, both of which have issues at receiver. The Vikings, for example, have 11 total picks including the 23rd and 25th selections in the opening round, while the 49ers lead the league with 13 picks including an extra selection in each of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds. Of course, its also still very likely that there could be several moves made by teams looking for a young QB, although that is more likely to happen at at the end of the first round rather than at the beginning. Indeed, the QB landscape changed rather dramatically this week when Buffalo signed free agent Kevin Kolb, while Oakland acquired Matt Flynn from Seattle and then traded Carson Palmer to Arizona. Most of the recent QB moves by teams with top 10 picks, though, still look more like stopgap measures so it is still not hard to figure that whichever of the likes of Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Arizona, Buffalo and the Jets doesn’t land West Virginia’s Geno Smith in this month’s opening round will be seriously considering taking a QB early in the second, which could set off some leapfrogging as those teams try and get the guy they really want … Ever since acquiring veteran QB Alex Smith in a trade with San Francisco it has been pretty much a given that the Chiefs would be taking an OT - either Texas A&M’s Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher of Central Michigan - with the #1 pick. So it raised a few eyebrows around the league when the Chiefs brought Geno Smith in for a pre-draft visit earlier this week. In fact, the Chiefs kind of let it leak out that they are still considering 4 players to be the first player chosen. The fact that the Chiefs did bring Smith in for a visit led to some speculation that Andy Reid and company were just blowing some smoke in order to try and find a taker for the top pick who wanted Smith for themselves. What’s more likely is that the Chiefs, who are free to negotiate with prospects for the top pick, are using the spectre of Smith as leverage in contract talks with the players they really want … Oakland’s acquisition of Matt Flynn to compete with Terrelle Pryor also probably took the Raiders out of the QB equation, at least in the early part of the 2013 draft. In fact, its hard to find a mock draft these days which doesn’t have the Raiders taking Florida DT Sharrif Floyd. However, it was interesting to note that it was Raiders’ staff that monopolized DE Ziggy Ansah’s time at last week’s BYU pro day. In particular, Oakland defensive line coach Terrell Williams ran Ansah’s positional drills and then the Oakland contingent took Ansah out for lunch after the workout. There was a smidgen of controversy, though, as Williams reportedly ran a very grueling work out that had Ansah, who remained in school this winter rather than head to a sunny clime to train, gassed on occasion. Hard to imagine that the Raiders would have done that deliberately to scare off other teams interested in Ansah in that Oakland already has the 3rd pick overall, but it did reportedly have some teams a tad irritated. At the same time, though, there have been concerns expressed about Ansah’s dedication to the game so perhaps the Raiders were just testing his heart, conditioning and passion for the game. What is true is that while the Raiders have a major need at DT, especially after releasing Tommie Kelly, its hard not to note that no Oakland DE had more than 4 sacks last fall and Matt Shaugnessy, their best player at the position last fall, has already signed elsewhere. … With the pro days now completed NFL teams will not start congregating in their respective war rooms to put the final touches on their value boards, as well as map out strategy for the upcoming draft. Teams will also continue to work players out at their respective colleges or home towns. They are also allowed to bring in up to 30 out-of-town players to their facilities for interviews and medical checks, but they are not allowed to work out these players. Teams are also allowed to bring in as many local players for visits as they can accommodate. And right now no player appears to have gotten more invites than enigmatic LSU CB Tyrann Mathieu who reportedly has visits lined up with as many as ten teams including Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Houston, Minnesota, New England, San Francisco, Seattle and Tampa Bay. In fact, its unlikely that Mathieu will go anywhere else because his schedule is full. Meanwhile, other players who are getting a lot of interest in terms of invitations to visit include Arizona QB Matt Scott and Michigan State RB Le’Veon Bell.

Damned by faint praise … Sometimes you really have to read between the lines very hard. For example, the reviews of QB Matt Barkley’s performance at the Southern Cal pro day on Wednesday, while not overhead, were generally positive. However, when analysts started to compare Barkley to current NFL QBs the names that were mentioned most often were Andy Dalton of Cincinnati, Tennessee’s Jake Locker and Mark Sanchez of the Jets. And while those comparisons appear to be more about those particular players as prospects rather than as pros, they can hardly be considered ringing endorsements. Dalton has been solid enough since entering the league two years ago, although he is still more of a game manager than a gunslinger, while Locker and Sanchez were the 28th and 31st rated passers in the NFL this past season. … The other fascinating aspect of any big-time pro day is who shows up from which team. Certainly, the USC pro day was well-attended by NFL types, with Jacksonville again sending a full contingent of front-office personnel including head coach Gus Bradley and G.M. David Caldwell to check out Bradley and company. Also in attendance were G.M.s Phil Emery of Chicago, Oakland's Reggie McKenzie and Les Snead of St. Louis. However, Arizona, the team which has been most associated with Barkley in recent mock drafts, only had a scout at the USC pro day, while Buffalo, which has done heavy due diligence on all the other top QB prospects, apparently didn’t send anyone at all. Strange ... Meanwhile, the New York Jets, another QB-starved team, were represented at the USC pro day by new QB-coach David Lee. One would have thought that if Jets head coach Rex Ryan was going anywhere yesterday it would be to the Southern Cal pro day to see Barkley or maybe the LSU on-campus workout to check on OLB KeKe Mingo. Instead, Ryan was at the Southern Methodist pro day in Dallas where he reportedly personally conducted drills involving SMU DE Margus Hunt, the one-time world rated Estonian shot putter who has evolved into a pretty good football player since taking the game up 4 years ago. Hunt has generally been considered to be more a second-round prospect, but there have been whispers that he could end up a first rounder on physical potential alone, especially after running a 4.60 40 at the combine. Of course, the Jets could be looking at Hunt as a possibility for their second round selection - they pick 39th about where Hunt is generally rated - but it would be unusual for a team to send its head coach half way across the country at this time of year to check out a 2nd round prospect. Stay tuned … The buzz from Manti Te’o’s pro day earlier in the week really hasn’t subsided with a lot of otherwise very savvy, well-connected talking head types at places like ESPN and NFL Network gushing about how Te’o now appears to be a legit first-round prospect again his pro day 40 was a tenth or so faster than his less-than spectacular time from the combine. The problem is that Te’o’s combine time (4.82) was electronic, while his pro day time (variously reported as 4.69, 4.71 and 4.75) was hand-timed. Given that hand times are generally 0.05 to 0.10 seconds quicker than electronic times, figure that Te’o’s actual pro time was probably pretty close to combine time. Certainly, it doesn’t appear to be a big enough difference to warrant much of a change in any player’s draft grade, and especially one like Te’o who has so many other issues. That isn’t to say Te’o isn’t a good prospect who has the potential to be a useful starter at the next level. Its not the way the draft works … Philadelphia, which has the 4th pick at this year’s draft, reportedly is bringing Florida DT Sharrif Floyd in for a visit. In fact, Floyd is originally from the Philadelphia, but apparently will stilll count against the Eagles allotment of 30 pre draft on-site visits. If the Eagles were to draft Floyd he would likely play the 5-tech DE opposite 2012 first rounder Fletcher Cox in the team’s revamped 3-4 defense ... BYU DE Ziggy Ansah has decided to skip his graduation and attend next month’s draft. A few eyebrows were raised around the NFL when Ansah opted to remain at school this winter to complete his studies rather than attend a pre-draft training facility like just about every other prospect in the country. That had more than one NFL personnel department worried about his long-term commitment to the game. For the record, Ansah, a Ghanian immigrant who only took up football three years ago, majored in actuarial science with a minor in math. Then again most other prospects for the draft probably couldn’t spell his major! For the record, part deux: Ziggy will be on the field with his teammates later today at the BYU pro day, although he'll likely only do positional drills. Again, though, the most interesting aspect of the BYU pro day may be just who shows up to check out Ansah.

Raider QB at center of latest draft buzz ... There is just a month and a day until the picking starts at the 2013 draft and usually about this time the smoke around the league starts to get hot and heavy. However, whether it is the remarkable fluidity in this year’s draft class or something else, there really hasn’t been a ton of buzz to date. The one story that seems to have legs is the fact that veteran Oakland QB Carson Palmer is refusing to restructure his current contract and all signs are pointing to the fact that the Raiders are prepared to release him if the standoff continues as expected. And that would almost certainly increase the chances that Oakland things extra hard about taking West Virginia QB Geno Smith with the 3rd pick at next month’s draft. At the same time, the expectation around the league is that if Palmer is released then he could end up at Arizona. In fact, heading into the pre-draft process no team was considered more likely to be looking at QBs in the 2013 draft than the Cardinals who would have journeyman - and that’s probably being generous - Drew Stanton as their starter. However, to date, the Cardinals, who have the 7th pick overall, have shown little serious interest in any of the top QB prospects, although they did work out North Carolina State’s Mike Glennon earlier in the week with G.M. Steve Keim and offensive co-ordinator Tom Moore in attendance. On the other hand, Buffalo, which has the pick after the Cardinals and had checked out all the top QB prospects earlier this month, also had a private workout with Oklahoma’s Landry Jones this week … Meanwhile, Kansas City, which has the top pick this year, appears to have gotten a little creative in the smoke and mirrors game when the Chiefs posted a series of photos on their web page of senior KC officials at the special Florida pro day last Friday where DT Sharrif Floyd was the featured attraction. The Chiefs appear to be committed to taking an OT - either Luke Joeckel of Texas A&M or Central Michigan‘s Eric Fisher - but may have sent out a little teaser that just maybe they might take Floyd such that if anybody wanted the former Gators‘ star themselves they might have to trade up to the #1 pick to get him … There has been some idle speculation that salary-cap strapped Dallas might not be able to make its early picks this year because unless they get some veterans restructured they won’t be able to sign them. Given that the Cowboys just signed veteran free agent LB Justin Durant, their salary cap issues may not be quite as bad as advertised suggesting they’ll indeed be making their early picks this year. And while the Cowboys have several potential needs, it appears that they will be targeting a safety in the early rounds. Head coach Jason Garrett, for example, will attend his only pro day later today when he travels to LSU ostensibly to check out Tigers’ FS Eric Reid, whom they‘ll also have in as one of their 30 allotted out-of-town pre-draft visits. For good measure, the Cowboys have also had private workouts with Texas’ Kenny Vaccaro and Phillip Thomas of Fresno State.