KEVINS KORNER

BUYER BEWARE: 2008 Picks Who Could Disappoint
by Kevin Horning; GBN Chief Scout
April 21

          
Every year at this time, once the pre draft workouts are over, there is always a slew of players who reach higher than deserved draft spots. This year is no different. Here are just a few that are in that category just a week before the draft.

DeSean Jackson- WR California: (5’9” 169 4.35)- Jackson, who had a wonderful season in 2006, is flat out much too small to be nothing more than a slot receiver in NFL. He has stayed in the first round talk only because of his speed, but it’s not that hard to cover speed. His 5’9” 169 frame will never be enough to get him open against aggressive corners, and once he has some time in the NFL, defenses will be able to adjust and shut him down very easily, something like what college defenses did last year. He had a lot of other weapons at Cal last season, so the excuse that the defenses only had to cover him doesn’t jive in this case. He was an excellent punt returner in college, with 4 TD’s in ’06, however this also declined in 2007 with just 1 TD return, which was in the season opener, and averaged just 10 yards per return. His yards per catch dropped by 6.3 yards per reception from 2006 to 2007, and he had 3 less touchdowns.
   
Jackson reminds me of Sinorice Moss, and we all know what Moss has done since being over valued in the 2006 draft. If you don’t know, he’s done the same as me in the NFL, nothing! There’s nothing wrong with adding a small slot receiver in the middle rounds, but as a high to mid first rounder, no way. He’s not Devin Hester either, so don’t expect Jackson to be a pro bowler on special teams. Good luck to whatever team drafts Jackson in the first round, you’re gonna need it.

Chad Henne- QB Michigan: (6’3” 230)- The highly touted and recruited Henne came to Ann Arbor with huge expectations, and looked like he was going to live up to them, with a very solid freshman season. The first problem with Henne is that this was his best season. He regressed every season at Michigan in almost every single aspect of his game, and the most important aspect of a quarterback’s game, the mental part, is my biggest question mark with Henne. He does not have that winning and leading mentality that NFL quarterbacks need to succeed. The fact that his yards passing and touchdowns went down every season, and his career low completion percentage of 58.3%, came in his senior season speaks volumes to me.

Henne did have a good combine which is a big reason why his name has been flirting with first round, but again the combine does not measure how he leads a team on the field. Anyone can throw with no one around them. How is he in big games you might ask? At Michigan there are really only 2 games that count, Ohio St. and the bowl game. Henne was 1-7 in those games with the only win coming in this years bowl game against Florida. He also was the starting quarterback in that monumental upset against I-AA (I will NEVER call it the FBS) Appalachian State. Now that loss can’t all be blamed on Henne obviously, but 19-37 for 233 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT is going to get it done either. Again another mid-round pick that with a good combine worked his way up to first or second area.

Devin Thomas- WR Michigan State: (6’2” 215 4.47)- Thomas is the ultimate boom or bust pick. He had a very good year in ’07 with 79 receptions for 1,260 yards and 8 touchdowns. He also led the Big Ten in kick returns with a 29.1 average, however these numbers are also pretty much his career numbers. Had 6 receptions in 2006. He has one year wonder written all over him and would’ve been well served with another season in college. He didn’t return a kick for a touchdown which makes you wonder if he has big play potential as a returner, and is a very raw receiver. Whatever team takes him is going to have to be patient as he will be overmatched in the NFL next season. Has good measureables, but they are only good around draft time. You need much more than that to be a Pro Bowl wide receiver, and that’s exactly what you expect when you take a guy in the first round. Anyone think the Lions would take him in the first round??

John Carlson- TE Notre Dame: (6’6” 255 4.88)- If anyone watched any Notre Dame game last season you should know that, besides Trevor Laws, the Irish had no one worthy of drafting period. Carlson had a good year in 2006 with 47 receptions for 634 yards and 4 touchdowns, of course this was with Brady Quinn and all the other weapons that made up that offense. In 2007, on the worst offense in college football, he had 40 catches for 372 yards and 3 touchdowns. That doesn’t seem all that bad, but when see how many balls he dropped and his inability to stretch the field, because of his slow running speed, it really makes you wonder why he is rated ahead of some other tight ends. He is not worthy of a second round slot, which is where most “experts” have him rated. He really reminds me of Anthony Fasano, who was also over valued coming out of Notre Dame, and we see how Fasano has done with the Cowboys in his first 2 seasons. He can be a decent blocking tight end, but because he is so slow, teams will have to keep someone in to help him against fast end rushers, and he won’t be able to stretch the middle of the field like you want your tight end to do. Can easily be covered by a linebacker. Over the years picks like Kyle Brady should show these NFL teams that the first or second round is no place to draft a slow, blocking tight end. However, it looks like some team will make the same mistake again.

John Sullivan- C Notre Dame: (6’4” 301 5.35)- Just to reiterate what I said earlier, if you saw an Irish game last year you should know there is no one worth drafting, sans Laws, on that team. Sullivan fits that perfectly. He got an extra year of eligibility, as did Carlson, and came back to South Bend with the hopes of an Outland trophy season. What he got was an atrocious season that saw him regress game by game to the point where Notre Dame would’ve been better off to sit him. His blocking calls were very suspect all season, which was one reason why the Irish led Division I in sacks allowed with 58. A good amount of the pressure came up the middle where Sullivan looked a matador half the time. His shotgun snapping was dreadful last season, and he even forgot the snap counts a few times. How can the center forget the snap count?! To top it all off for Sullivan, he missed the final 2 games last year and what did Notre Dame in those games? They won them both. I realize they were against Duke and Stanford, but when you realize the Irish had 49% of their total rushing yards in those 2 games (446 yards in those 2 games compared to just 457 with him in 10 games) it does not bode well for his professional aspirations. When you draft Sullivan, you better have a really good offensive line and a good back up.

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