Introduction...Getting a feel for how an upcoming draft will ultimately grade out is always problematic at this time of year. In fact, next April 23rd is still a long way off and much can, and will, happen between now and then. Some prospects, for example, will suffer injuries or other off-field problems that will dramatically alter their draft chances; others will slump; while still others who are currently barely registering on the draft radar will emerge as legitimate prospects. And, of course, much also still depends on which juniors ultimately jump to the pros a year early this winter. Over the next month or so until the 2004 college football season kicks off, we'll be giving you a heads-up on who to watch this fall on all 117 Division 1-A schools, as well as breaking down each position by the top-rated prospects for 2005, along with potential sleepers as well as players to watch for future drafts. For now, though, here's a quick overview of what to look for next April....

Its all in the numbers...Every year at this time our team of crack scouts pours over information from all Division 1-A teams, ultimately assigning each school a numerical grade for its potential upcoming draft class. And what the numbers seem to confirm is that the upcoming draft won't have quite the talent of the 2004 event which was considered to be one of the best ever. Based on a point system which awards a school's draft class 5 points for an elite prospect, 4 for a solid first-round candidate etc., the average score for this year's top 25 programs was over 20% lower than that for last year's terrific draft. That said, Oklahoma which tops our list of the top draft classes across the country had the highest score we have ever recorded with one of the deepest draft classes on record.

There was also a changing of the guard of sorts among the top-rated draft classes, at least for this year. For example, Miami, which has literally blown away the competition with 19 first-round picks in the past 4 years, including a record 6 this past April, didn't make our pre-season top 20 projected 2005 draft classes. Neither did Ohio State, which had a remarkable 14 players - 5 more than any other school including Miami - selected at last April's draft. Don't shed too many tears for the either the Hurricanes or Buckeyes, however, as both schools have plenty of outstanding young talent and will likely be back to dominating draft day on a regular basis within a year or two.

And while most of the schools in our top 25 draft classes are the usual suspects from the major BCS conferences, a number of schools not normally considered to major producers of elite talent for the NFL also dotted the list. Indeed, one non-BCS conference school - Texas Christian - even managed to sneak into the top 10, while five others - Toledo at #16, #17 UNLV, #20, New Mexico, #22 Louisville and #25 Alabama-Birmingham all made the top 25. In contrast, last year's top 25 was made up exclusively of teams from the 6 BCS conferences.

Youth to be served... The other thing that struck our scouts as they poured over potential prosects for next year's draft is that while there appears to be a relatively large number of players carrying solid first-round grades on our value board at this time, there don't appear to be an overwhelming number of potential elite prospects, at least among this year's senior class. Indeed, at this time, its hard to name more than a couple or three veteran players who are legitimate candidates to be the the first player selected next April. Indeed, the top players at selected QB, WR, TE, OT, DE, DT, LB and FS next April could ultimately come from a very good junior class which includes players like QB Matt Leinart of Southern Cal; WRs Mike Williams of Southern Cal, Martin Nance of Miami of Ohio, Chris Henry of West Virginia and Skyler Green of LSU; TEs Heath Miller of Virginia and Matt Herian of Nebraska; OTs Andrew Whitworth of LSU, Max Jean-Gilles of Georgia, Eric Winston of Miami, and Jonathan Scott of Texas; DT Rodrique Wright; Boston College DE Matthias Kiwanaku; LBs Pierre Woods of Michigan, A.J. Hawk of Ohio State, Odell Thurman of Georgia and Abdul Hodge of Iowa; and FS FS Thomas Davis of Georgia.

Where's the beef?... While its still early, the offensive line appears to be the strength of 2005 draft.  At OT, for example, there is a deep, talented group of seniors including Jammal Brown of Oklahoma, Alex Barron of Florida State, Wesley Britt of Alabama, Michael Munoz of Tennessee, Anthony Alabi of TCU, Toledo's Nick Kaczur, Justin Geisinger of Vanderbilt, and Calvin Armstrong of Washington State each of whom has at least mid- to late first round potential. The top player at the position, though, may come from an even more talented junior OT class which includes players like Andrew Whitworth of LSU, Eric Winston of Miami, Jonathan Scott of Texas, Max Jean-Gilles of Georgia, Adam Stenavich of Michigan, Zach Strief of Northwestern, and Marcus McNeill of Auburn. And that's just the tip of the iceberg of what is shaping up to be a very deep position. And it will be a 'big' group in more than just numbers. For example, our preliminary list of the top 30 OT prospects for the 2005 draft weighs an average of 320 pounds per man and almost half are 6-6 or taller. 

The 2005 draft OG class also looks to be considerably more talented than its counterparts in the past 2-3 years. Indeed, there are as many as half a dozen OGs with at least late first-round potential. There is still considerable sorting out to be done at the position with any of Claude Terrell of New Mexico, Elton Brown of Virginia, Michigan's David Baas, C.J. Brooks of Maryland, Chris Kemoeatu and Wisconsin's Dan Buenning capable of grading out as the top player at the position by the time the draft rolls around next April. There's also some outstanding depth at the position.

Same story at C where a player like Jeff Faine, selected 21st overall by Cleveland in 2003, or Damien Woody, the 17th player taken in the 1999 draft by New England, has come along every few years to beats the odds and gets a first-round call, but for the most part the position is relegated to the later rounds. This year could be one of those exceptions, however, with a number of top prospects including Oklahoma's Vince Carter and Ben Wilkerson of LSU, both of whom have been rated among the best players in the country at the position since early in their careers, while juniors Richie Incognito of Nebraska and Mike Degory of Florida could also figure in the early round mix if they opt to leave school early. Indeed, the Gators' Degory, who is bigger than the other three, but is just as quick and aggressive, could ultimately be a very high pick for a C.

Where's the beef, Part II... If any one position at the 2005 draft is going to give the offensive linemen a run for their money it could be the defensive ends. That said, no DE has yet to firmly establish himself as a lock to be an elite pick at this year's draft, although Marcus Spears of LSU and Georgia's David Pollack are close, while Boston College junior Mathias Kiwanuka could also ultimately end up being the first DE off the board next April if he leaves scholl early. Meanwhile, explosive speed rushers Ardell Duckett of Texas Tech and Oregon State's Bill Swancutt and more two-way guys Dan Cody of Oklahoma and Shaun Cody of Southern Cal, who moves outside to DE after playing inside throughtout his career to date, should all get strong condsideration in the latter half of this year's opening round, while talented juniors such as Eric Henderson of Georgia Tech, Jovan Haye of Vanderbilt and Loren Howard, along with a very deep second-tier group of senior DEs, make this one of the best drafts at the position in years. Indeed, teams should be able to find some help at the position pretty much throughout the second day of the draft.

In contrast, 2005 could be something of a down year at DT, which have pretty much dominated the top of the draft board in recent years with 14 players at the position selected among top the 15 picks in the past four drafts combined. Texas junior DT Rodrique Wright, a 315-pound monster, though, could get a lot of consideration as a potential top pick overall next April if he opts to leave school early, while Anttaj Hawthorne of Wisconsin looks to be a solid mid-first round prospect. Oregon sophomore Haloti Ngata, a freakish 345-pounder with quickness, could also figure in the mix at the very top of the board if he's fully healthy after tearing up a knee in last season's opener. Meanwhile, solid veterans
Lorenzo Alexander of California, Anthony Bryant of Alabama, Arrion Dixon of Arkansas, Dusty Dvorak of Oklahoma and Mike Patterson of Southern Cal supply depth, but it likely won't be the bonanza we've seen at the position in recent years.

Comeback kids... Once a true glamor position on draft day, the RBs have become something of an afterthought in recent years. Indeed, a RB hasn't been a top 10 selection since 2001 when LaDainian Tomlinson went 5th overall to San Diego. That slump could come to end this April, however, with what looks to be a very good RB class. Auburn's Carnell Williams, for example, is a potential elite prospect if he is fully healthy, while Cedric Benson of Texas, who has given up baseball to concentrate on football, and underrated Syracuse speedster Walter Reyes are close. The 2005 RB class, though, could be something special if any of a plethora of outstanding juniors like Marion Barber of Minnestoa, DeAngelo Williams of Memphis, T.A. McLendon of North Carolina State, and Dontrell Moore of New Mexico opt to leave school early, while veteran scatbacks Anthony Davis of Wisconsin, Darren Sproles of Kansas State, and Patrick Cobbs of North Texas, bruising Ronnie Brown of Auburn, plus emerging stars Earl Charles of Marshall, Lionel Gates of Louisville, Kay-Jay Harris of West Virginia, and Chance Kretchsmer of Nevada provide terrific depth at the position. Then there's Ohio State's Maurice Clarett who thought he'd be in an NFL training camp about now when a federal judge made him eligible for the 2004 draft as a true sophomore. However, Clarett, who was the early pick to be the #1 pick at the 2005 draft when he rushed for 1,300 yards as a true freshman in leading the Buckeyes to their 2002 national title, but will end up sitting out for a second straight year this fall after that original decision was stayed on appeal.

Comeback kids, Part II... Like the RB situation, the LBs have been something of an afterthought, at least in terms of first-round draft selctions, the past several years. The LBs, though, should finally make something of a statement in 2005. On the outside, for example, Texas OLB Derrick Johnson almost assuredly would have been the top player LB picked had he entered the 2004 draft, while Michael Boley, a big-play Southern Miss star, would not have been that far behind. Same story for Kevin Burnett of Tennessee if he is fully healed from a 2002 knee injury. An outstanding crop of junior OLBs including 6-5 Pierre Woods of Michigan, A.J. Hawk of Ohio State, speedy DeMeco Ryans of Alabama, Chad Greenway of Iowa, Darryl Blackstock of Virginia, and Temple's Rian Wallace would make the OLB class more than just good if any opted to enter next year's draft.

MLB could also be a strength at the 2005 draft if Lance Mitchell of Oklahoma, one of the top 2-3 ranked MLBs heading into the 2003 season, is fully recovered from a knee injury that forced him to miss much of the year. If healthy, Mitchell will join a solid group of MLBs which will also include Kirk Morrison of San Diego State, James Kinney of Missouri and Nebraska's Barrett Ruud. And like several other positions at the 2005 draft, the MLB crew could be especially talented if augmented by emerging junior stars such as Abdul Hodge of Iowa, Fred Roach of Alabama, Will Derting of Washington State, Kevin Simon of Tennessee, and Odell Thurman of Georgia, each of whom can run and hit.

Mixed bag at QB... QB, in particular, is one position that appears to be looking at a drop-off in 2005. Indeed, right now there doesn't appear to be a sure thing at the position, although USC junior Matt Leinart is already a better prospect than former Trojan Carson Palmer, the #1 pick overall at the 2002 whom Leinart replaced last fall. All the 6-5 Leinart did, of course, was lead his team to a share of the national title. Meanwhile, Arizona State's Andrew Walter entered the 2003 season ranked on a par with Ole Miss' Eli Manning as a potential elite prospect, but suffered through an inconsistent season; Walter, though, still has the size and arm strength to re-emerge as a top-flight prospect. Meanwhile, strong-armed Dan Orlovsky of UConn and Kyle Orton of Purdue, along with athletic Charlie Frye of Akron and Georgia's David Greene head a reasonable group of second-tier QBs that also includes Gino Guidugli of Cincinnati, Hawaii gunslinger Timmy Chang and inconsistent Chris Rix of Florida State, while athletic juniors Charlie Whitehurst of Clemson and Bruce Gradkowski of Toledo would also spice things up if entered this year's draft.

No WR love fest this year... WRs dominated the 2004 draft with 7 WRs selected in the opening round, including 3 in the top 10 picks and 5 in the top 15. While the 2005 draft's receiver corps won't come close to matching that production, the position should get a huge boost with the return of star Southern California junior Mike Williams. Like Ohio State's Clarett, Williams was all set to become a top 10 pick last April, but was left in football limbo by the courts, something he is trying to escape having applied to the NCAA for re-instatement. Whether he plays this fall or not, Williams should again command top 10 interest next April, and if he can improve on his 40 times could even get some consideration as the potential #1 pick overall. In addition to Williams, there are some intriguing senior prospects at receiver including Mark Clayton of Oklahoma, Braylon Edwards of Michigan, and Craphonso Thorpe of Florida State, while juniors Geoff McArthur of California, Martin Nance of Miami of Ohio and Chris Henry of West Virginia would also likely figure in the first-round mix if they opt to leave school a year early and enter the 2004 draft.

What the 2005 receiver corps' shares with last year's crop, though, is some solid depth including emerging stars like explosive J.R. Russell of Louisville, Fred Gibson of Georgia; Craig Bragg of UCLA, Terrence Murphy of Texas A&M, Roydell Williams of Tulane, all of who have decent size/speed credentials while, 5-9 Kerry Wright of Middle Tennessee State, Chad Owens of Hawaii and Nehemiah Glover of Texas Tech, head a good 'smurf' brigade of receivers.

It could also be a rather quiet draft year for TEs, though, the position would be really spiced up if talented juniors Heath Miller of Virginia and/or Matt Herian of Nebraska opt to leave school early and enter the 2005 draft. Colorado State veteran Joel Dreesen and Toledo's Andrew Clarke are also intriguing prospects who combine the speed to stretch defenses with decent blocking skills, while Stanford's Alex Smith, Billy Bajema of Oklahoma State and Steve Fleming of Arizona are all solid.

Secondary: Teams looking for a quality cover corner with size and athleticism should find something to their liking early at the 2005 draft with CBs like Antrel Rolle of Miami, Marlin Jackson of Michigan, Auburn's Carlos Rogers, LSU's Corey Webster and Antonio Perkins of Oklahoma on the board. Indeed, each of Rolle, Jackson, Rogers and Webster seriously considered entering the 2004 draft where they would have been hign picks. Add in juniors Justin Miller of Clemson, Will Blackmon of Boston College and Adam Jones of West Virginia and there should be plenty of talent at the corner next year. Pro scouts are also keen to see Oklahoma junior Chijioke Onyenegacha, the top JC recruit in the country in 2003, who didn't play last fall. Teams looking for a CB next year will want to shop early, however, because there may be a significant dropoff to the next level where there likely won't be much depth.

There is an irony in the 2005 safety class in that there is some talent in the group, but most of the top prospects at the position, such as Donte Nicholson of Oklahoma, Jammal Brimmer of UNLV, Atari Bigby of Central Florida, and Jerome Carter of Florida State, along with juniors Ernest Shazor of Michigan, James Sanders of Fresno State and Jarrad Page of UCLA, are more SS types. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech's James Butler heads a thin-looking FS class that also could include Wisconsin's ball hawking sensation Jim Leonhard; Leonhard, though, is only 5-8 and may will be considered at CB. The best safety in the country, though, should be Georgia junior FS Thomas Davis, a 220-pounder with speed, who just might start evoking comparisons to former Miami FS Sean Taylor, the 5th player selected overall at last April's draft. Meanwhile, Nebraska junior FS Josh Bullocks, another ball-hawker supreme, could also be a factor if he enters the draft early.

If you have comments or suggestions, e-mail the Editor, Great Blue North Draft Report. The GBN can also be reached by phone at (613) 727-3388; by fax at (613) 951-0387; or regular mail at P.O. Box 5282, Merivale Depot, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, K2C 3H5.

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