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NEWS AND INFORMATION ON THE NFL DRAFT |
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(Ed note: Every week, or as to close to it as we can get, GBN editor and publisher Colin Lindsay, as well as other guest scouts will be providing analysis and insight into the latest draft and other NFL news. Of course, as the draft gets closer, the Scouts Notebook will posting more often with reports on breaking deelopments, emerging and falling prospects as well as thoughts on what strategies various teams may be considering for draft day. And for more information on what's happening with regards to the NFL draft stay with the GBN homepage. In the meantime, readers are always asking us for insight into pro footbal betting odds but as a genneral we leave that to folks with more expertise in the area. Indeed, our #1 rule for that sort of thing is play the game you know so we trust the guys who study those trends. And whether its for the NFL or other pro sports, here's the place to go for the best in online sports book betting.) Dynamic Dozen top Non-D1A Prospects for the 2010 Draft by Colin Lindsay, GBN Editor and Publisher October 2, 2009 In no particular order, the following are several of the top lower level prospects proi scouts are watching for the 2010 draft. QB Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State, 5-11, 185, 4.52 … Talented D1AA option QB with over 10,000 career yards from scrimmage, but is expected to make the switch to receiver at the next level as he doesn't have the size or the arm strength to be an NFL signal caller; sees the field well and has good football instincts; not a sprinter, but is an athletic runner with a quick first step; also a real character player. WR Terrelle Hudgins, Elon, 6-2, 235, 4.60 ... Small-college version of Arizona WR Anquan Boldin who is a very physical receiver with great hands; also uses body well to shield defenders away from the ball; will make the tough catch in traffic and does not go down easily after the catch; lacks sprinter speed, but has a nice burst out of his cuts and has that extra gear when the ball is in the air; dominated at the lower level averaging 135 receiving yards per game this fall after catching over 200 passes for over 2,600 yards and 28 TDs during the past couple of years. TE Steve Sicko, New Hampshire, 6-3, 245, 4.65 … Very good lower-level receiving TE had 101 catches over the past couple of seasons; has soft hands and the speed to stretch defenses; built more like a FB or HB and isn’t going to get much of a push drive blocking, although he will put a hat on people; good athlete who was actually a very good edge rushing DE as a prepster. TE Nathan Overbey, Eastern Washington, 6-5, 270, 4.85 … Big underneath target with good hands; knows how to get open; decent athlete who was also a very good basketball player in high school, but lacks the speed to really stretch defenses; had 28 receptions in 2008 and 15 more so far this season including 7 against D1A California; has good size, but is more of a bulked up WR and is not a great blocker. OG Vladimir Ducasse, UMass, 6-5, 330, 5.35 … Strong, wide-body offensive lineman has played LT the past couple of years, but probably projects to OG at the next level; physical drive blocker has long arms with an effective punch, but is not overly quick or agile; hard worker who is still a relative newcomer to the game after immigrating from Haiti in the early 2000s. OT Jared Veldheer, Hillsdale, 6-7, 325, 4.90 … Imposing lower level prospect with impressive measurables; 325-pounder who reportedly runs the 40 in around 4.9 seconds; also has a 30-inch vertical leap and has done over 30 reps pressing 225 pounds; 4-year starter at LT is both a solid drive blocker and athletic pass protector, although pro scouts would like to see him be a little more physical run blocking; has long arms and an effective punch; also a former high school basketball star who is light on his feet. OT James Williams, Harvard, 6-5, 295, 5.20 … Athletic D1AA LT with long arms and excellent technique; not huge and isn’t a real mauler, but gets off the snap with authority and is a good seal off run blocker; can also get to the second level and make a block in space; has good balance and can change direction protecting the passer, but can be bull-rushed. DE Austen Lane, Murray State, 6-7, 270, 4.65 … Dominating D1AA end with excellent size and athleticism; has averaged a sack a game over the past couple of seasons; also a dangerous kick blocker with 4 career blocks; has a large wingspan and can disrupt passing lanes; also uses arms and hands well to disengage and keep blockers off his legs; has decent quickness of the snap and better closing speed once he gets in gear; needs to concentrate on keeping pads low, but is generally a solid run defender. DE James Ruffin, Northern Iowa, 6-4, 265, 4.82 … Disruptive lower level edge rusher is averaging obver a sack per game this season after ringing 10 last year; has a very quick first step and goes hard to the whistle, but lacks second gear closing speed; has decent upper body strength and uses hands effectively to shed blockers, but pass rush moves need refining; has adequate size and is a solid enough run defender. DE Jeremy Maddox, Alabama A&M, 5-11, 265 … Small-college version of dynamic Denver DE Elvis Dumervil; not very tall, but is very quick off the edge; has excellent strength with the ability to maintain leverage once he gets to the corner; also has a great motor; has 24.5 career sacks including 5 in 4 games to date in 2009. CB Patrick Stoudamire, Western Illinois, 5-10, 200, 4.42 … One of the top non-D1A prospects for the 2010 draft; has good size and speed and even better quickness and agility; very fluid in the hips and transitions smoothly from backpedal to full stride; has good recovery speed with a 40-time in the low 4.4 range; technically-solid tackler, although he’s not that assertive coming up in un support; very aggressive in press coverage and also breaks crisply on the ball working in a zone; also very physical when the ball is in the air, but doesn’t have the best hands; indeed, has just 5 career picks while breaking up 31 passes including 7 in 3 games this fall; good athlete who was also a decent basketball prospect and actually played for the WIU hoops team as a freshman; known as a character player who is a hard worker on the field as well as the classroom where he carries a double major in biology and zoology. CB Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Indiana (PA), 6-1, 195, 4.50 …
Physical cover corner dominates at the DII level; rangy player with
great instincts and hands; picked off 8 passes and broke up 10 others
last fall and has another couple of picks already this year; lacks
sprinter speed, but has fluid hips and is a long strider who can make
up a lot of ground when the ball is in the air; has good size, but
isn’t at all aggressive in run support where he had only 14 tackles
last fall; doubles as a very good kick returner who averaged 12.1 yards
per punt return last fall and 24.5 on KOs. ******* PREVIEWING THE 2010 DRAFT by Colin Lindsay, Editor and
Publisher, Great Blue North
September 3, 2009
One key to just how strong the 2010 draft will ultimately turn out to be, though, is which juniors and other underclassmen opt to turn pro this winter. For example, in our very preliminary ranking of the top 100 prospects for the 2010 draft, 4 out of the top 5 and 7 of the top 10 prospects are juniors. Indeed, half the players rated in the first 32 players are underclassmen. Of course, much can, and will change over the curse of the next 7 months plus, however, here’s a quick overview of the likely strengths and weaknesses of the upcoming draft. Certainly the top storyline in college football this fall will be the expected year-long dual among star QBs Tim Tebow of Florida, Colt McCoy of Texas and Oklahoma junior Sam Bradford for player of the year honors. And while all three are outstanding talents, there is a wide divergence in their draft prospects. Bradford, for example, who was widely expected to be the first player taken at the 2009 draft before he opted to return to school for another year of seasoning, probably should be plying his trade with Detroit this fall. Meanwhile, McCoy looks to be a solid mid-first round prospect this coming April. Tebow, though, represents something of a major challenge for pro scouts. Tebow will likely go down as one of the greatest college players of all time, but still has yet to convince NFL personnel people that he has the accuracy and mechanics to play the position at the next level. Indeed, Ole Miss junior Jevan Snead currently probably ranks ahead of Tebow as a prospect for the 2010 draft. There is a major drop-off, though, after the top 3-4 QB prospects this year, although there are a number of interesting second-tier types at the position including Zac Robinson of Oklahoma State, athletic Dan LeFevour of Central Michigan, and Tim Hiller of Western Michigan among others. While the QBs will grab most of the headlines, the real strength of the 2010 draft likely will be along the defensive line. Indeed, the top individual position could be DT. Nebraska 300-pounder Ndamukong Suh and Oklahoma junior Gerald McCoy, for example, both have top 5 potential, while there are a number of later first round prospects at the position including 365-pound Terrence ‘Mount’ Cody, Arthur Jones of Syracuse and UCLA junior Brian Price, both of whom are especially quick and athletic, and Vince Oghobaase of Duke. There is also good depth at DT with several solid later first-day types that don’t get the same hype but will still be good value on draft day including quick Geno Atkins of Georgia, Jared Odrick of Penn State, Boo Robinson of Wake Forest, DeMarcus Granger of Oklahoma, Boo Smith of Louisiana Tech, Dan Williams of Tennessee and Jay Ross of East Carolina, while Baylor junior Phil Taylor, a 355-pound transfer from Penn State who didn‘t play last fall could also be one of the best of the bunch once he gets back on the field. Meanwhile, there are a ton of college DEs who can get after the passer including tweener types like George Selvie of South Florida, Sergio Kindle of Texas, Greg Hardy of Ole Miss, Michigan’s Brandon Graham, Jerry Hughes of TCU, and Brandon Lang of Troy, along with emerging juniors Greg Romeus of Pitt, Everson Griffin of USC and Jason Worilds of Virginia Tech. The top DE this year, though, could ultimately be freakish 6-5, 290-pound Florida junior Carlos Dunlap who could get some serious consideration as the #1 player selected this year. Its also not a bad year to be in the market for an offensive tackle as Russell Okung of Oklahoma State, Oklahoma‘s Trent Williams, Ciron Black of LSU, as well as juniors Brian Bulaga and Anthony Davis of Rutgers each has first-round potential. There are questions about the overall athleticism of seniors Okung, Williams, and Black who may be downgraded as more RT prospects. Meanwhile, there is some good depth at the position including later first day prospects Charles Brown of USC, Sam Young of Notre Dame, and Adam Ulatoski of Texas, while 315-pound Zane Beadles of Utah is something of a sleeper. Unfortunately, there isn’t anywhere nearly as much talent this year at either C or OG, although Alabama OG Mike Johnson and Clemson C/G Thomas Austin at least have top 60 potential. Teams looking to add some size at OG, though, should be able to find something in the mid-rounds. Meanwhile, the top interior offensive line prospect could be USC junior C Kris O’Dowd, although he’s currently out with a knee injury. The 2010 draft will also be relatively strong at safety, a position that has tended to get short shrift at the draft in recent years. At safety, for example, both Taylor Mays of USC and Tennessee junior Eric Berry are considered top 5-10 talents, while junior Reshad Jones of Georgia may not be all that far behind. And there should be plenty of depth at safety early at the 2010 draft in players such as Darrell Stuckey of Kansas, Nate Allen of South Florida and Kam Chancellor of Virginia Tech, as well as Georgia Tech junior Morgan Burnett. On the other hand, it could be something of a down year at CB, although the entry of juniors like Joe Haden of Florida and Virginia’s Ras-I Dowling would upgrade things and provide at least a couple of potential mid-first round candidates at the position. Meanwhile, there are a number of seniors who should get at least top 60 consideration including Trevard Lindley of Kentucky, Syd’Quan Thompson of California, Kyle Wilson of Boise State, Brandon Ghee of Wake Forest and Alabama‘s Javier Arenas, who is also one of the top kick returners in college football. It likely will also be an average year at both RB and WR, positions that will be especially dependent on juniors at the top of the board at the 2010 draft. Georgia Tech junior Jonathan Dwyer, for example, is the top RB prospect this year, but stilllikely won’t be rated much higher than the middle of the opening round, while fellow juniors Evan Royster of Penn State and USC‘s Joe McKnight could get some late first round consideration. There should be some pretty good depth at RB this year with speed guys like C.J. Spiller of Clemson, Cal‘s Jahvid Best and Da‘rel Scott of Maryland, bruisers like LeGarette Blount of Oregon Stateand Toby Gerhart of Stanford, as well as productive all-around chain movers such as Charles Scott of LSU, Stafon Johnson of USC and Chris Brown of Oklahoma. The leading prospects at WR are also juniors including Arrelious Benn of Illinois, a legitimate top 10 prospect, along with Dez Bryant of Oklahoma State, a potential mid-first rounder, and smooth Damian Williams, who could sneak into the late first round. Meanwhile, LSU’s Brandon LaFell is the top senior prospect at the position, but he may lack the pure foot speed to be more than a second round candidate. Other potential top 60 receivers include Mardy Gilyard of Cincinnati, Jordan Shipley of Texas, Minnesota’s Eric Decker, along with talented juniors Dezmon Briscoe of Kansas and Mike Williams of Syracuse. The one offensive skill position that could be rated as above average n 2010 could be the TEs. Oklahoma’s Jermaine Gresham, for example, should be one of the better prospects at the position in a while, while juniors Rob Gronokowski of Arizona and Aaron Hernandez of Florida may not be all that far behind. And there should be good depth at the position this year including veterans Dennis Pita of BYU, Ed Dickson of Oregon, Garrett Graham of Wisconsin, and Anthony McCoy of USC. Figure that both the inside and outside LB positions will have average crops this year. At MLB, for example, Brandon Spikes of Florida has the kind of athleticism that kept Rey Maualuga and James Laurinaitis out of the first round of the 2009 draft, however, he’s the only likely mike backer to go in this year’s opening round with the exception perhaps of Alabama junior Rolando McClain who has exceptional size and decent agility. Micah Johnson of Kentucky also has excellent size for a mike backer as well as decent speed and agility. And there are a number of other solid tackling machine MLB types who maybe lack exceptional measurables, but have great instincts and motors including Joe Pawelek of Baylor, underrated Boris Lee of Troy and the appropriately named Pat Angerer of Iowa. On the outside, Sean Witherspoon of Missouri, a potential mid-first rounder, is the top all-around prospect at the position, although he could get a push from either or both Michigan State junior Greg Jones and Sean Lee of Penn State, who is back after missing the 2008 season with a torn ACL. Meanwhile, South Carolina DE Eric Norwood could attract some early interest as a 3-4 rush LB with a big upside, while athletic Stevenson Sylvester of Utah could be an emerging sleeper. Pro scouts will also earn their keep grading juniors Rennie Curran of Georgia and Navorro Bowman of Penn State. Both are impact defenders, but Curran is undersized at barely 5-11, 220, while Bowman has had an array of off-field troubles. See you in April!!!The quarterback of every NFL team is the most important factor in a team’s success. No one will argue that point. It is the most important position on the field. A team can be carried by the superb play of their quarterback or setback for decades if they chose the wrong one on Draft day. Something that we’ve been mulling over at the Great Blue North is the success rate of quarterbacks that sit during their rookie year and learn the system versus the rate of success for quarterbacks that play in their first year. Accordingly, we compiled all the career QB ratings of guys drafted between 1996 and 2005 that have at least 15 career starts. We excluded all of the guys drafted after 2005 like Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jamarcus Russell because it might not be fair to judge these unfinished products yet. After we compiled all the career QB ratings we took the average of each rookie that started at least one game and averaged each that spent the year riding the pine. The quarterbacks that sat had a career QB rating nine points higher (82.2) than their peers (73.2) that were thrown to the wolves right away. Let’s put that a different way. It’s the difference between Troy Aikman (81.6) and Don Majkowski (72.9). It’s the difference between John Elway (79.9) and Rodney Peete (73.3). Patience would be the best course of action for NFL coaches hoping to turn their young quarterbacks into stars. Regarding the Lions pick of Matthew Stafford, Trent Dilfer said, “It’s only the right pick if the Lions handle him properly.” It was a very insightful comment. How do we know what David Carr might have become if he had the opportunity to sit for a year or two like Carson Palmer did in Cincinnati. Unfortunately, it’s hard for a struggling team to continue to lose and not play their talented new quarterback. Winning is everything in the NFL or not for long league and teams cannot afford lose. Men lose their jobs if they don’t win football games and this often leads to teams becoming short sighted. Maybe they have to sacrifice winning today by benching the most talented player on their team, but hopefully with patience they will acquire more victories in the future. Year Round Player School Team Rookie Starts Career QB Rating 2005 1 Alex Smith Utah San Francisco 7 63.5 2005 1 Aaron Rodgers California Green Bay 0 91.8 2005 1 Jason Cambell Auburn Washington 0 80.4 2005 4 Kyle Orton Purdue Chicago 15 71.1 2005 6 Derek Anderson Oregon State Baltimore 0 75.1 2005 7 Matt Cassel USC New England 0 88.2 2005 7 Ryan Fitzpatrick Harvard St. Louis 3 66.9 2004 1 Eli Manning Mississippi San Diego 7 76.1 2004 1 Philip Rivers NC State NY Giants 0 92.9 2004 1 Ben Roethlisberger Miami (O) Pittsburgh 13 89.4 2004 1 J.P. Losman Tulane Buffalo 0 75.6 2004 3 Matt Schaub Virginia Atlanta 1 86.2 2003 1 Carson Palmer USC Cincinnati 0 88.9 2003 1 Byron Leftwich Marshall Jacksonville 13 80.3 2003 1 Kyle Boller California Baltimore 9 71.9 2003 1 Rex Grossman Florida Chicago 3 70.2 2003 3 Chris Simms Texas Tampa Bay 0 71.2 2002 1 David Carr Fresno State Houston 16 74.9 2002 1 Joey Harrington Oregon Detroit 12 69.4 2002 1 Patrick Ramsey Tulane Washington 5 74.9 2002 3 Josh McCown Sam Houston St Arizona 0 71.6 2001 1 Michael Vick Virginia Tech Atlanta 2 75.7 2001 2 Drew Brees Purdue San Diego 0 89.4 2001 2 Quincy Carter Georgia Dallas 8 71.7 2001 4 Chris Weinke Florida State Carolina 15 62.2 2001 5 A.J. Feeley Oregon Philadelphia 0 69.6 2000 1 Chad Pennington Marshall New York 0 90.6 2000 6 Marc Bulger West Virginia St. Louis Rams 0 85.6 2000 6 Tom Brady Michigan New England 0 92.9 1999 1 Tim Couch Kentucky Cleveland 14 75.1 1999 1 Donovan McNabb Syracuse Philadelphia 6 85.9 1999 1 Akili Smith Oregon Cincinnati 4 52.8 1999 1 Daunte Culpepper UCF Minnesota 0 89.0 1999 1 Cade McNown UCLA Chicago 6 67.7 1999 2 Shaun King Tulane Tampa Bay 5 73.4 1999 4 Aaron Brooks Virginia Green Bay 0 78.5 1998 1 Peyton Manning Tennessee Indianapolis 16 94.7 1998 1 Ryan Leaf Washington St San Diego 9 50.0 1998 2 Charlie Batch Eastern Michigan Detroit 12 77.9 1998 3 Brian Griese Michigan Denver 0 82.7 1998 6 Matt Hasselbeck Boston College Green Bay 0 84.5 1997 2 Jake Plummer Arizona State Arizona 9 74.6 1996 2 Tony Banks Michigan State St. Louis 13 72.4 1996 4 Danny Kanell Florida State New York Giants 0 63.2 If you have comments or
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