THE SCOUT'S NOTEBOOK

“Starting Rookie Quarterbacks”

The quarterback of every NFL team is the most important factor in a team’s success.  No one will argue that point.  It is the most important position on the field.  A team can be carried by the superb play of their quarterback or setback for decades if they chose the wrong one on Draft day.  Something that we’ve been mulling over at the Great Blue North is the success rate of quarterbacks that sit during their rookie year and learn the system versus the rate of success for quarterbacks that play in their first year.  Accordingly, we compiled all the career QB ratings of guys drafted between 1996 and 2005 that have at least 15 career starts.  We excluded all of the guys drafted after 2005 like Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jamarcus Russell because it might not be fair to judge these unfinished products yet.  After we compiled all the career QB ratings we took the average of each rookie that started at least one game and averaged each that spent the year riding the pine.  The quarterbacks that sat had a career QB rating nine points higher (82.2) than their peers (73.2) that were thrown to the wolves right away.  Let’s put that a different way.  It’s the difference between Troy Aikman (81.6) and Don Majkowski (72.9).  It’s the difference between John Elway (79.9) and Rodney Peete (73.3).

Patience would be the best course of action for NFL coaches hoping to turn their young quarterbacks into stars.  Regarding the Lions pick of Matthew Stafford, Trent Dilfer said, “It’s only the right pick if the Lions handle him properly.”  It was a very insightful comment.  How do we know what David Carr might have become if he had the opportunity to sit for a year or two like Carson Palmer did in Cincinnati.  Unfortunately, it’s hard for a struggling team to continue to lose and not play their talented new quarterback.  Winning is everything in the NFL or not for long league and teams cannot afford lose.  Men lose their jobs if they don’t win football games and this often leads to teams becoming short sighted.  Maybe they have to sacrifice winning today by benching the most talented player on their team, but hopefully with patience they will acquire more victories in the future.

Year        Round  Player                             School                      Team                               Rookie Starts         Career QB Rating
2005       1      Alex Smith               Utah                  San Francisco                7                             63.5
2005       1      Aaron Rodgers        California           Green Bay                     0                             91.8
2005       1      Jason Cambell         Auburn               Washington                   0                             80.4
2005       4      Kyle Orton              Purdue               Chicago                       15                             71.1
2005       6      Derek Anderson      Oregon State      Baltimore                      0                              75.1
2005       7      Matt Cassel             USC                  New England                 0                             88.2
2005       7      Ryan Fitzpatrick      Harvard              St. Louis                        3                             66.9
2004       1      Eli Manning             Mississippi          San Diego                      7                             76.1
2004       1      Philip Rivers            NC State            NY Giants                      0                             92.9
2004       1      Ben Roethlisberger  Miami (O)           Pittsburgh                     13                             89.4
2004       1      J.P. Losman            Tulane                 Buffalo                           0                             75.6
2004       3      Matt Schaub            Virginia               Atlanta                           1                             86.2
2003       1      Carson Palmer         USC                   Cincinnati                       0                             88.9
2003       1      Byron Leftwich        Marshall              Jacksonville                   13                            80.3
2003       1      Kyle Boller              California            Baltimore                        9                             71.9
2003       1      Rex Grossman         Florida                Chicago                          3                             70.2
2003       3      Chris Simms            Texas                  Tampa Bay                     0                             71.2
2002       1      David Carr              Fresno State        Houston                        16                             74.9
2002       1      Joey Harrington       Oregon                Detroit                          12                             69.4
2002       1      Patrick Ramsey        Tulane                 Washington                    5                             74.9
2002       3      Josh McCown         Sam Houston St   Arizona                          0                             71.6
2001       1      Michael Vick           Virginia Tech        Atlanta                           2                             75.7
2001       2      Drew Brees             Purdue                 San Diego                      0                             89.4
2001       2      Quincy Carter          Georgia                Dallas                            8                             71.7
2001       4      Chris Weinke           Florida State        Carolina                       15                             62.2
2001       5      A.J. Feeley              Oregon                 Philadelphia                   0                             69.6
2000       1      Chad Pennington      Marshall               New York                     0                             90.6
2000       6      Marc Bulger            West Virginia        St. Louis Rams               0                            85.6
2000       6      Tom Brady              Michigan              New England                  0                            92.9
1999       1      Tim Couch               Kentucky            Cleveland                      14                            75.1
1999       1      Donovan McNabb   Syracuse             Philadelphia                     6                            85.9
1999       1      Akili Smith               Oregon                Cincinnati                        4                            52.8
1999       1      Daunte Culpepper    UCF                    Minnesota                       0                            89.0
1999       1      Cade McNown        UCLA                 Chicago                          6                            67.7
1999       2      Shaun King               Tulane                 Tampa Bay                     5                            73.4
1999       4      Aaron Brooks           Virginia               Green Bay                       0                            78.5
1998       1      Peyton Manning        Tennessee           Indianapolis                   16                            94.7
1998       1      Ryan Leaf                 Washington St     San Diego                       9                            50.0
1998       2      Charlie Batch            Eastern Michigan Detroit                          12                            77.9
1998       3      Brian Griese              Michigan             Denver                            0                            82.7
1998       6      Matt Hasselbeck       Boston College    Green Bay                      0                            84.5
1997       2      Jake Plummer            Arizona State      Arizona                           9                            74.6
1996       2      Tony Banks              Michigan State     St. Louis                       13                            72.4
1996       4      Danny Kanell            Florida State        New York Giants           0                             63.2
 


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