|
NEWS AND INFORMATION ON THE NFL DRAFT |
| Home
|
WANING QUARTERBACK PLAY IN THE NFL GUESS WHO'S COMING TO DINNER Reading the tea leaves… With most of the focus these days on first-round prospects for the 2008 draft, it is easy to lose sight of the fact that the draft is seven rounds long; and that’s especially significant in a draft like this year’s which appears to be very deep. And if it’s hard to get a true sense of who is up and down among first-round prospect at this time of year its even tougher in later rounds. However, there might be some clues as to which players outside the first round may be on the rise based on those who appear to have been invited to a number of pre-draft visits to team facilities. Every NFL team is allowed to bring up to 30 players in for final interviews and medical tests to their training facilities, although players can’t be worked out. Not surprisingly, most of the players that teams bring in are potential first rounders, but a goodly number are later round candidates. Of course, there is no rule that teams have to draft a player brought in for a visit; indeed, there have always been suspicions that some teams bring in players just to throw off the competition. However, if that indeed does occur, it is most likely going to be among players at the very top of the draft board and is much less likely to be the case for the lower round players bring to town. In no particular order, here is a brief list of players not considered first round prospects who seem to be showing up on a regular basis on pre-draft team visits: Miami LB Tavares Gooden… Considered a potentially useful second-day type LB, Gooden began shooting up draft boards around the league when he ran the 40 in around 4.6 seconds at both the combine and his pro day. Gooden is a physical player who gets to the ball in a hurry, but still may be a bit stiff when moving in reverse. Arkansas State FS Tyrell Johnson… Rising star in a weak secondary class; Johnson has SS size at 6-0, and almost 210 pounds, but also has excellent speed with a 40 clocking in the low 4.4 range; also has underrated ball skills picking off 6 passes in 2007. Virginia Tech OT Duane Brown… Converted TE with long arms and perhaps the best overall athleticism in this year’s OT class with a sub-5.0 40; still raw and needs to be pushed now and again, but has the physical potential to develop into a top LT. Oregon State OG Roy Schuening… With Virginia’s Branden Albert now considered as much an OT prospect, Shuening could be the first OG off the board later this month, possibly as early as the late second round; Schuening is a rugged 310-pounder with decent athleticism who plays hard. And while not necessarily dominant either run or pass blocking Schuening is solid at both facets of the game. Northern Iowa OG Brandon Keith… Pro scouts watch NIU tapes to check out fellow offensive lineman Chad Rinehart, who more than held his own at this year’s Senior Bowl, but come away just as impressed with Keith, a 345-pounder, with surprising quickness and agility for a big man who runs the 40 in under 5.20 seconds. More of a mauler, Keith still is something of a project, but has the tools to develop into a versatile pro who can play either RT or OG. Arizona State C Mike Pollak… Was invited to the Senior Bowl almost as an afterthought, but may have been the best offesnive lineman in Mobile this year. Indeed, in a very weak year for centers, Pollak is perhaps the only player at the position likely to be taken within the first three years. Pollak isn’t huge at just a few ounces over 300 pounds, but he’s very quick with a sub-5.0 40 clocking; also a technically solid player who plays hard to the whistle. Other Cs who seem to be attracting some growing late round interest include Jamey Richard of Buffalo and Georgia’s Fernando Velasco. Louisille WR Mario Urrutia… Had all the look of a legitimate first rounder entering the season, but struggled through a very disappointing 2007 season; at 6-6, 232 ith 4.6 speed is still a potential match-up problem at the next level for a team looking for another Marques Colston. After virtually disappearing from the draft radar was in both Cincinnati and Pittburgh for visits this week. Purdue DE Cliff Avril… Avril, a tweener edge rusher with good strength and a burst is being checked out by just about every 3-4 team in the league as a potential pass rush OLB. Other explosive tweener edge rushers who are getting extra attention from pro teams these days include Marcus Howard of Georgia, Bryan Smith of McNeese State, Curtis Johnson of Clark Atlantic and Hilee Taylor of North Carolina. Meanwhile, other players on the rise these days appear to include WRs Eddie Royal of Virginia Tech, Donnie Avery of Houston, Will Franklin of Missouri, and Dexter Jackson of Appalachian State, OGs Jeremy Zuttah of Rutgers and Utah State’s OG Shawn Murphy, and CBs Tyvon Branch of UConn and Antwuan Molden of Eastern Kentucky. At the same time, small-school players who have been showng up as invited guests of pro teams include Richmond RB Tim Hightower, OTs Thaddeus Coleman of Mississippi Valley State and Northwest Louisiana’s Demetrius Bell, Bentley OG Mackenzie Bernadeau, Montana DE Kroy Bierman, LBs Shane Simmons of Western Washington and Vincent Redd of Liberty, and CBs Brandon Carr of Grand Valley State and Cary Williams of Washburn. MOVING AND SHAKING IN THE 2008 FIRST ROUND Still sortin’…. With the 2008 draft just 2 and a half weeks away, there appears to be a reasonably solid consensus around the league that there are a clear top 7 prospects including QB Matt Ryan of Boston College, Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, Michigan OT Jake Long, DEs Chris Long of Virginia and Ohio State’s Vernon Gholston and DTs Glenn Dorsey of LSU and Sedrick Ellis of Southern California. With just 17 days to go until the draft, though, there is still no consensus top prospect overall. Indeed, both Longs, as well as Dorsey, Ryan and McFadeden all have their supporters who think they are the top-rated player in this year’s draft class, while both Gholston and Ellis show up in plenty of top 5s. While there is still plenty of sorting out to be done at the very top of the draft board, the situation for the next 10-15 grades is downright murky. Indeed, there is more than one team around the league that rates each of the ‘Super Seven’ top prospects as a potential top 5 candidate on their value board, but doesn’t have anyone at all with a 6-10 grade. Most draft gurus and not-so-gurus, for example, rate Boise State OT Ryan Clady as a top 10 prospect, however, Clady may have dropped a bit in the eyes of many teams in the league as he isn’t necessarily always that physical while more than one team questions whether in fact he has that fire in the belly for football. At the same time, Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart , a 235-pounder with 4.4 speed, would also probably have been a lock to be a top 10 pick, if not higher, but he is sidelined for the next several months after undergoing toe surgery. Others who have gotten some props as potential top 10 selections this year include Southern Cal LB Keith Rivers, CBs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Leodis McKelvin and Florida DE Derrick Harvey, but all have their warts that could ultimately drop the into the second ten picks. While fast and aggressive, neither Rivers and McKelvin, for example, are considered all that instinctive by some scouts, while Harvey lacks prototype 40 speed. Meanwhile, for his part, Rodgers-Cromartie has a non-football health condition - he has just one kidney - that could scare of some teams Arguably the positions most in flux these days are offensive tackle and wide receiver. Like Boise State’s Clady, Vanderbilt OT Chris Williams may also be slipping to some degree. Nobody questions Williams athleticism and pass protection skills, but he’s not all that physical drive-blocking. However, with NFL teams putting such a premium on LTs with quick feet, neither Clady nor Williams are expected to fall all that far. Meanwhile, there are two huge - both literally and figuratively - wild cards at OT in Branden Albert of Virginia and Pitt’s Jeff Otah. Albert had been considered a top 25-type prospect as the top OG in the draft class, but has seen his grade rise dramatically as more teams come to see the athletic 6-5, 315-pounder as a potential left tackle. For his part, Otah may be one of the most interesting stories of this year’s draft. A late come to football, Otah rocketed up draft charts this fall as the 322-pounder consistently dominated physically at the point off attack. Otah, though, ran a very slow 5.55 40 at the combine and hasn’t worked out since because of a high ankle sprain. So far, the slow time doesn’t seem to have affected Otah’s overall draft grade in any significant fashion, but where he ultimately gets selected could be determined to a large degree later today when he holds a private workout at Pitt. There is perhaps even more flux at wide receiver where just about every top prospect has some kind of wart. In a perfect world, for example, 6-4, 220-pound Malcolm Kelly of Oklahoma could be a top pick, but he hasn’t been able to work out this spring because of knee problems. Indeed, there have been whispers that the problems in one of Kelly’s knees could be chronic, although he has gone to great lengths in recent weeks to refute those fears. And like Pitt’s Otah, Kelly has a big day later today when he finally runs for pro scouts at a special on-campus workout in Norman. There is something of a similar story for Limas Sweed of Texas, another potential top 20 pick, who has been hampered by a severe wrist injury, although the fact that Sweed also lacks an explosive burst also doesn‘t help his case. Meanwhile, DeSean Jackson of California and Michigan‘s Mario Manningham could both go any where from the middle of the opening round to the middle of the second. Both have elite physical skills, but both also have major attitude and work ethic questions. The questions among the other top WRs may have opened the door for Michigan State junior Devin Thomas to be the first player selected this year at the position. Indeed, there have been rumblings that Buffalo, with the 11th pick overall, is taking a long look at Thomas, who has a unique combination of 6-1, 215-pound size and sub-4.4 speed. The only real question regarding Thomas is the fact that he was something of a one-year wonder at Michigan State where he only really emerged as a top target in 2007. Emerge Thomas did, though, as he caught 79 passes for 1,250 yards for a team which really didn’t throw the ball al that well; for good measure, Thomas was also one of the top kick returners in college football as he averaged over 29 yards per return. The other WR one is beginning to hear more and more as a possible mid-to-late first choice is Indiana junior James Hardy. Hardy, a 6-5 sometime former IU basketball player with excellent size and hands, elevated his status when he ran under 4.5 at the combine, although there are some concerns about a past off-field domestic incident. Other players who could go almost anywhere in this year’s early rounds along with Oregon’s Stewart include Louisville QB Brian Brohm, Clemson DE Phil Merling, Tennessee MLB Jerod Mayo and Kansas CB Aqib Talib. Brohm, for example, had appeared to almost drop-off the draft radar this winter, but resurrected his status with what was described as a terrific on-campus workout. Brohm could still slip into the latter part of the opening round, but could also draw plenty of interest from teams in the middle part of the first round. For his part, it wasn’t all that long ago that Clemson’s Merling had started to attract some top 10 interest, but hasn’t worked out since undergoing hernia surgery and could slip deep into the opening round. Meanwhile, the status of Kansas’ Talib has just been thrown into question as reports that he openly admitted to repeat marijuana usage in college. With a clean record, Talib likely would have generated some top 20 interest, but now reportedly has been dropped completely from some team’s draft boards. On the other hand, Tennessee’s Mayo has made a meteoric rise after a solid combine at whih he ran a 4.55 40 and an even better pro day workout. In a really down year at LB it wouldn’t be a total shock if Mayo were ultimately the first backer off the board later month somewhere in the middle of the opening round. MOVING AND SHAKING COMING OUT OF THE COMBINE Cornerback… No player did more for his final 2008 draft grade at the combine than Tennessee State CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Indeed, after running a 4.33 40 and posting a 38.5-inch vertical leap in Indianapolis, ‘DRC’ may very well have edged ahead of both Leodis McKelvin of Troy and South Florida’s Mike Jenkins to be the top-rated corner this year. For their part, though, though both McKelvin and Jenkins also ran under 4.4 seconds themselves, with McKelvin also showing explosive quickness in some of the other drills. On the other hand, while USF’s Jenkins showed plenty of track speed, he wasn’t all that quick over ten yards or in the other speed drills; indeed, Jenkins time in the short shuttle was the slowest of any CB who ran the drill at the combine. Meanwhile, Aqib Talib of Kansas and Arizona’s Antoine Cason weren‘t quite as fast, but both still helped themselves running in the 4.45 range. Cason also was only a tenth of a second off the best time among CBs in the short shuttle which measures quickness. In fact, there was a ton of speed among the combine CBs with each of Justin King of Penn State (4.31), Boise State’s Joe Scandrick (4.32), and Uconn’s Tyvon Branch (4.31) running close to 4.3 seconds for the 40, while Tracy Porter of Indiana (4.37) and Auburn’s Patrick Lee (4.42) were among several corners to run in the 4.4 range that also included Terrance Wheatley of Colorado (4.37), Jonathan Wilhite of Aubrn (4.380, Zach Bowman of Nebraska (4.39), Wilrey Fontenot of Arizona (4.40), Arizona State’s Justin Tyron (4.42), Iowa‘s Charles Godfrey (4.43), and Kent State’s Jack Williams (4.43), while Marcus Walker of Oklahoma was close with a 4.46 40 time and a quicker 4.10 time in the short shuttle. One of those in the 4.4 range was emerging Antwaun Molden of Eastern Kentucky, a 6-1, 198-pounder, who ran a 4.39 40, posted a 37-inch vertical leap and had top times in both the short shuttle and cone drill. Another emerging CB of sorts out of the combine is Michael Grant of Arkansas, a somewhat undersized collegiate safety (5-11, 186) with CB speed (4.37).On the other hand, CBs who probably disappointed at the combine included DeJuan Tribble of Boston College and Virginia Tech’s Brandon Flowers, both of whom stopped the clock in the 4.55-4.60 range. Safety… For the most part, it was a case of feast or famine for the safeties at the combine. The one real teaser, though, was Miami FS Kenny Phillips. Phillips was once considered to be a lock to be a top 15 pick, but has been slipping of late, probably stopped the bleeding with a decent combine effort which saw him run under 4.5 seconds (4.48) for the 40. On the other hand, it probably wasn’t enough to move Phillips up so there is still a chance he drops to the end of the first round. Meanwhile, Oklahoma junior Reggie Smith, the only other safety likely to be worth a first round pick won’t work out until April 9 as he rehabs from a late-season leg injury. Several other safeties, though, had surprisingly strong combines including UTEP’s Quentin Demps and Cal’s Thomas DeCoud. Demps ran a very quick sub 4.4 40 at the combine while DeCoud stopped the clock in 4.50 seconds. Arizona State’s Josh Barrett also excelled as the 223-pounder blitzed a 4.35 40, while Tyrell Johnson of Arkansas also got under 4.5 seconds (4.45). Meanwhile, one emerging FS to watch is David Roach of TCU, who has both good size (6-0, 210) and speed, with a 40 clocking very close to 4.5 seconds. On the other hand, safeties that didn’t run as well as expected included Tennessee’s Jonathan Hefney (4.55); Michigan’s Jamar Adams (4.59); Alabama’s Simeon Castille (4.63); Texas’ Marcus Griffin (4.75) and Boston College thumper Jamie Silva (4.82). Linebacker… The situation at LB re the 2008 draft is still somewhat up in the air as neither of this year’s top two backers - USC’s Keith Rivers and Dan Connor of Penn State - opted to work out in Indianapolis. Among LBs who did work out at the combine, neither of Xavier Adibi of Virginia Tech nor LSU’s Ali Highsmith, both of whom might have been possible late first round picks this year, ran very well. Indeed, Highsmith was clocked in something close to 5.00 seconds for the 40, a dreadful time for a smallish LB. One has to figure, though, that Highsmith must have tweaked something along the way as his times over both 10 and 20 yards were comparable with other LBs, while he posted one of the better short shuttle times at the position. Meanwhile, Adibi ran in the 4.7 range which isn’t bad, but which also isn’t the explosive time he needed to move into first-round consideration. In fact, the LB class that did work out wasn’t all that inspiring. OLBs that did show some special athleticism included Wes Woodyard of Kentucky, Gary Guyton of Georgia Tech, Stanford Keglar of Purdue, Florida State junior Geno Hayes and Nebraska’s Steve Octavian, although none is considered to be more than a mid-round prospect at this time. One potential sleeper who did emerge was Georgia’s Marcus Howard, one of only two LBs to break 4.5 seconds at the combine as he blitzed a 4.42 in the 40. One other LB of note at the combine was the emergence of Tennessee junior MLB Jerod Mayo as a likely first-round prospect. Mayo who could very well be the first MLB off the board this coming April, ran a very quick 4.54 40 at the combine and then followed that up with a strong showing at the Vols’ pro day workout. Defensive line… The key stat for the DTs at the combine may have been 5.2-plus. That’s the rather disappointing 40 time of 5.26 seconds posted by USC DT Sedrick Ellis, which under normal circumstances wouldn’t translate into a top 10 draft selection. Ellis, though, wasn’t the only top-rated DT to run in that range as Kentwan Balmer of North Carolina, who is generally considered to be the 3rd ranked DT in the 2008 draft class behind LSU’s Glenn Dorsey and Ellis, also ran a very slow - even for a 310-pound DT - 5.29 40. In contrast, the DT who may have made himself the most money at the combine was Dre Moore of Maryland who clocked a 4.85 40 running at 305 pounds, while 318-pound Red Bryant of Texas A&M, Marcus Harrison of Arkansas and Auburn’s Pat Sims all helped themselves with 40 times between 5-flat and 5.10. The story at DE at the combine of course was the solid performance of Ohio State’s Vernon Gholston who may vaulted himself into a top 5 pick after running a 4.65 40 and posting 37 reps pressing 225 pounds. For the most part, though, it was a ‘slow’ news day at DE where two other top-rated junior Des - Calais Campbell of Miami and Derrick Harvey of Florida - didn‘t run all that well. Indeed, Campbell may have run himself right out of the first round when he couldn‘t break 5.00 seconds, while Harvey was a sluggish - at least for a tweenerish DE - 4.85 seconds in the 40. Offensive tackle… The big story at OT at the combine - which actually didn’t make much of a splash - was the fact that both Jeff Otah of Pittsburgh and Kansas’ Anthony Collins, the two top OT prospects one would figure to be in the mix at the end of this year’s first round, ran very poorly. Indeed, both Otah and Collins timed in a very slow 5.55 seconds for the 40. Collins did reportedly run somewhat better at the Jayhawks’ on-campus workout where he was timed in under 5.4, but that is still not the kind of athleticism expected of a first round LT. On the other hand, underrated Duane Brown of Virginia Tech led the way among the offensive tackles with a solid 5.07 40 clocking and then showed some athleticism in the other drills. Wide receiver… Michigan State junior Devin Thomas may have broken the hearts of a number of teams with late-first round picks this year when the former Spartan likely ran himself close to a top 20 pick when he ran a fast 4.4 40 at the combine. In fact, overall, the WRs performance was a tad disappointing although both Andre Caldwell (4.37) of Florida and 6-6 James Hardy (4.49) of Indiana put up numbers that would be worthy of a late-first round pick. On the other hand, neither Limas Sweed (4.55) of Texas nor Michigan’s Mario Manningham (4.60), both of whom had been considered potential first rounders, did much to help themselves with their combine 40 times, especially given concerns about Sweed’s surgically repaired wrist and Manningham’s overall attitude and work ethic. Manningham, though, was able to improve that time into the low-to-mid 4.4 range at Michigan’s pro day last week. Indeed, the WR story at the combine may have been the emergence of a number of solid second-tier sleeper type receivers including Appalachian State’s Dexter Jackson (4.37), Missouri’s Will Franklin (4.37), Arman Shields (4.44) of Richmond and Jerome Simpson (4.47) of Coastal Carolina. TE is not supposed to be a real strength at the 2008 draft, however, a number of players at the position that worked out in Indianapolis showed intriguing athleticsm, although there also didn’t appear to be a true-defense stretcher in the bunch. Purdue’s Dustin Keller created the biggest buzz at TE when he ran a very quick 4.53 in the 40, however, there was a small pack right behind in the 4.60 range including Brad Cottam of Tennessee, Kellen Davis of Michigan, Kentucky’ Jacob Tamme, and Cal’s Craig Stephens, while Texas A&M’s Martellus Bennett was solid enough at 4.68. The TE whose performance at the combine may have really cost him was John Carlson of Notre Dame who barely broke the 4.90 mark. Running back… Anyone doubting that the face of college backs is changing these days only needed to grab a stopwatch when the RBs took to the track at the combine as they put on a speed display worthy of their CB or WR counterparts. Indeed, more than 10 RBs at this year’s combine ran at or under 4.45 seconds for the 40, led by East Carolina’s Chris Johnson who posted one of the all-time best times ever at the combine when he stopped the clock in 4.24 seconds. And each of this year’s top backs all got in on the act with Arkansas’ Darren McFadden, arguably the #1 rated back in this year’s draft class and possibly the #1 player overall, ran a 4.33, while Illinois’ Rashard Mendenhall clocked a 4.41, Oregon’s Jonathan Stewart ran a 4.46 at 235 pounds, while McFadden’s Arkansas teammate Felix Jones timed out at 4.44. East coast juniors Ray Rice of Rutgers and West Virginia’s Steve Slaton also both helped themselves running 4.42 and 4.45 respectively and squashing doubts that they were too slow for the pro game. Same story for Tulane’s Matt Forte who ran a 4.44 himself. On the other hand, Michigan’s Mike Hart turned out to be as slow as many had predicted as he ran a disappointing 4.69 40. Kelly Lumpkin of Georgia also ran himself out of some money with a time of close to 4.70 while Oregon State’s Yvenson Bernard may have run himself right out of the draft when he was timed in over 4.8 seconds for the 40. POST-COMBINE RISING STARS Now that the NFL Combine has passed, the upcoming NFL Draft is
really beginning to shape up. Talking about the Draft before the
Combine is like watching regular season NBA basketball, you get an idea
of who’s who, but there’s no sense talking about it until after the
regular season. The Combine came and went with the two stars being
Virginia DE Chris Long and Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, who solidified
their status as top 5 talents. Here, however, is a few that are flying
a bit under the radar, who will help their soon-to-be new teams in one
capacity or another. Note: Height, weight and 40 time are in
parentheses.
by Colin Lindsay, Editor and Publisher Best draft yet!!! That may be a little premature as there is still much sorting out to do, but on paper at least, the 2008 draft looks like it could be a very good one indeed. And the proof isn’t so much in the quality of the players at the very top of the draft board, but in the quality of the prospects further on down the draft board. For example, we have players like QBs John David Booty of USC and Tennessee’s Erik Ainge, Florida WR Andre Caldwell, Boston College OT Gosder Cherilus, North Carolina DT Kentwan Balmer and CBs Antoine Cason of Arizona and Auburn’s Patrick Lee ranked in the early third round range on the GBN Big Board. Of course, its possible that we have rated some of those players too low; however, if they move up other players have to move down. The message here is that there are a lot of very good prospects at a number of positions so teams need not necessarily force a pick in the opening round to fill a need. One reason for the apparent strength of this year’s draft has been the influx of a very talented group of underclassmen. Indeed, as many as half of the players taken in this year’s opening round could very well be juniors, while over one in three of all players selected in the first three rounds could be underclassmen. Again, while there is still a lot of sorting out to do before Miami makes he first pick on April 26th, here’s a quick run down on some of the strengths and weaknesses in the 2008 draft field: To QB or not to QB… For starters, there will be a relatively strong QB class available this coming April. It is unlikely that a QB will go first overall, but Matt Ryan of Boston College and Brian Brohm of Louisville certainly will get long looks by QB-challenged teams with top 10 picks, while Andre’ Woodson of Kentucky shouldn’t be all that far behind. What makes this year’s QB class especially intriguing, though, is the fact there should be as many as a half dozen players at the position likely to grade out in the second and third round areas including John David Booty of Southern Cal, Colt Brennan of Hawaii, Michigan’s Chad Henne, Erik Ainge of Tennessee, Joe Flacco of Delaware and Dennis Dixon of Oregon. There are also a couple of other lower levels QBs worth a long look in athletic Josh Johnson of San Diego and Ricky Santos of New Hampshire, while Paul Smith of Tulsa, another very athletic type, reminds some of the Cowboys’ Tony Romo, could still be out there early on the second day. Meanwhile, teams looking for a sleeper in the late rounds may take a shot at someone like 6-6 Kevin O’Connell of San Diego State. At the same time, though, there really isn’t a ton of depth in the 2008 QB draft class past the top dozen or so QBs prospects. Meanwhile, the 2008 draft also appears to be loaded with talented skill position players for the young QBs to work with. For example, no position got a more of a boost from the entry of underclassmen into this year’s draft class than RB. Indeed, without the juniors, there probably isn’t a first round quality level back in the draft, however, the entry of juniors Darren McFadden and Felix Jones of Arkansas, Illinois’ Rashard Mendenhall, Texas speedster Jamaal Charles and Jonathan Stewart of Oregon gives the 2008 draft as many as 5 backs with size and speed - all 5 run the 40 in well under 4.5 seconds - who should all go in the opening round. And there is exceptional depth at the position with seniors like Mike Hart of Michigan, Georgia Tech’s Tashard Choice and East Carolina speedster, along with super productive juniors Ray Rice of Rutgers, Kevin Smith of Central Florida and Steve Slaton of West Virginia figuring in the later first day mix. There is also a really fascinating WR class shaping up. Right now no WR has a lock on a first-round pick, although there are a slew of receivers including seniors Adarius Bowman of Oklahoma State, Limas Sweed of Texas and Early Doucet and juniors DeSean Jackson of California, James Hardy of Indiana, Malcolm Kelly of Oklahoma, Earl Bennett of Vanderbilt, Devin Thomas of Michigan State and Michigan’s Mario Manningham all with the skills to go in the top 30 picks. The early returns also suggest that there will be a very deep class WR as the top tiers of receivers could go as many as 20 deep. Indeed, in our latest ranking of WRs, prospects like Andre Caldwell of Florida and Marcus Monk of Arkansas and juniors Davonne Bess of Hawaii and Adrian Arrington of Michigan, along with speedsters Harry Douglas of Louisville and Donnie Avery of Houston didn’t make the top 10, while guys like Lance Leggett of Miami, Jason Rivers of Hawaii, Paul Hubbard of Wisconsin, Eddie Royal of Virginia Tech and Will Franklin of Missouri ranked in the 20s, meaning they will almost assuredly last into the second day. There is a similar story at CB where there likely aren’t any sure top 10 prospects, especially now that Ohio State junior Malcolm Jenkins has opted to return to school for one more shot at a BCS title, however, there is still plenty of talent starting with another Jenkins - Mike of South Florida - who should be off the board by the middle of the opening round, while Kansas junior Aqib Talib, Tracy Porter of Indiana, Tennessee State‘s Dominique Cromartie-Rodgers, Leodis McKelvin of Troy and Chris Godfrey of Iowa are more second round types that could sneak into the opening round. Like the WR position, what stands out at CB is the depth as players like Patrick Lee of Auburn, Penn State junior Justin is King, Terrell Thomas of USC, Trae Williams of South Florida and Terrence Wheatley of Colorado, all of whom can really run, didn’t make the top 10 CBs, while Jack Williams of Kent State, Darnell Terrell of Missouri and Zach Bowman of Nebraska weren’t in the top 15. The DE position also got something of a boost from the entry of three top juniors - Vernon Gholston of Ohio State, Derrick Harvey of Florida and Calais Campbell - each of whom should get a call somewhere in the middle of the opening round. Veteran Virginia DE Chris Long, though, should be the first DE off the board this April; indeed, if the draft were held today, Long just might get some consideration by Bill Parcells to be the Dolphins choice with the #1 pick overall. Auburn tweener Quentin Groves could also get some late first round consideration, although more likely as a 3-4 rush LB. Indeed, there is something off a drop-off to the next tier of DEs. Same story at DT where LSU’s Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis of USC are both top 10 types, while Auburn junior Pat Sims could be a rising star, however, while there is plenty of size at DT this fall, there is another major drop-off to the next level of DTs. At one time, OT was expected to be the position of choice at the 2008 draft, however, there has been some erosion at the position since the start of the season. Still, both Jake Long of Michigan and Boise State junior Ryan Clady have top 5 potential, while another junior, Michael Oher of Ole Miss, should figure in the mid-first round mix. There is also some solid depth at the position including veterans such as Sam Baker of USC and Gosder Cherilus of Boston College, both of whose stock appears to be dropping, while that of Pitt’s Jeff Otah, Vanderbilt’s Chris Wlliams, Carl Nicks of Nebraska, Heath Benedict of Newbrry, and Kansas junior Anthony Collins is rising. Teams looking for a stud OT, though, probably won’t want to wait too long this coming April. Meanwhile, its very possible that no OG or C will be taken in the first three rounds this year, although there are a number of solid veterans with size who would make useful addition with mid-round picks. There is also something of a mixed bag at LB where there will be some strength on the outside, while the pickings will be slimmer on the inside. There are, for example, 3-4 OLBs with the potential to be first round picks this year including Dan Connor of Penn State, Keith Rivers of USC, LSU’s Ali Highsmith, and Xavier Abidi of Virginia Tech, while Michigan’s Shawn Crable heads a group of 4-5 solid later first day prospects. On the other hand, its unlikely that any MLB will go in the opening round, although juniors Curtis Lofton of Oklahoma and Jerod Mayo of Tennessee improve the first-day depth at the position. Arguably the weakest position at the 2008 draft is safety where only Miami junior Kenny Phillips figures to be an opening round pick this year, although several junior CBs such as Aqib Talib of Kansas and Reggie Smith of Oklahoma could get late first round looks at safety. The depth at safety though is improving with the emergence of several solid second and third round prospects including Marcus Griffin of Texas, Alabama CB Simeon Castille, Quentin Demps of UTEP, Jamar Adams of Michigan, Michael Grant of Arkansas and Tyrell Johnson of Arkansas State. Looking way down the road… Not many teams appear to actually subscribe to the notion of strategic drafting, that is, factoring in what they may or may not get at a future draft when making a current pick, but it also probably never hurts to take a peek down the road just in case. For the record, here is a very preliminary list of prospects for the 2009 draft although it is always very important to keep in mind that so much can and will change between now and April 2009. What teams looking at the 2009 draft will see, for example, is a QB position that could be a bit iffy. There are some junior gunslingers out there like Graham Harrell of Texas Tech, Chase Daniel of Missouri and Chase Holbrook of New Mexico State, although its still not clear that any is a true elite prospect at this time. Needless to say, the QB situation would get a whole lot more interesting if Florida soph Tim Tebow, this year’s Heisman Trophy winner opts to go pro next winter, as pro scouts debate whether he‘s a great athlete playing QB or a great QB who also just happens to be a special athlete. Positions that should be strong in 2009 include, for example, DE which should feature a strong enough senior cadre led by LSU‘s Tyson Jackson, but will be very interesting indeed if super soph pass rushers like George Selvie of South Florida, Greg Middleton of Indiana, Greg Hardy of Ole Miss, and Maurice Evans of Penn State leave school early next winter. The offensive line should also be reasonably strong next year. There is a deep group of veteran OTs headed by Alex Boone of Ohio State and 350-pound Phil Loadholt of Oklahoma, both of whom had been expected to enter this year’s draft. The best prospect at OT though could be Alabama sophomore Andre Smith. The 2009 draft could also be unusually deep at OG and C. Indeed, the OG position which likely will include players like Duke Robinson of Oklahoma, Jeremy Perry of Oregon State, and Virginia Tech soph Sergio Render, could rival their OT counterparts. LB should also be a very interesting position at the 2009 draft. MLBs James Laurinaitis of Ohio State and rugged Rey Maualaga of USC, for example, could be the best pure inside LBs to come along with it will deep at OLB with a group headed by Sean Lee of Penn Sate, USC’s Brian Cushing and Marcus Feeman of Ohio State. On the other hand, there could be major drop-offs at RB, WR and CB at the 2009 draft, although none of those positions will exactly be a wasteland. The CBs, for example, will include Malcolm Jenkins of Ohio State, who likely would have been the top player at the position off the board this coming April had he not decided to go back to school, along with Tony Carter of Florida State, Mike Mickens of Cincinnati and little-known Darren Banks of West Liberty State. Meanwhile, the top RB could ultimately be 230-pound Ohio State sophomore Beanie Wells, while Florida sophomore Percy Harvin could be the top WR. At the same time, DT looks like it could have another off year in 2009
|